Jon Husted

COLUMBUS--Ohio’s U.S. Senate race is set, with Republican Sen. Jon Husted facing former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in a high-stakes contest expected to be one of the most expensive in the country.

“It’s going to be epically expensive,” University of Cincinnati politics professor David Niven said. “It’s a serious contender to become the most expensive Senate race ever.”

Brown, who lost his Senate seat in 2024, easily defeated fellow Democrat Ron Kincaid. The Associated Press called the race shortly after polls closed just as initial unofficial vote tallies were available.

Husted faced no opposition in the Republican primary, and neither did Libertarian candidate William Redpath.

A recent poll from Bowling Green State University found Brown and Husted essentially tied, while the Cook Political Report rates the race as one of its three tossups, along with Maine and Michigan.

That means Ohio voters can expect a flood of television ads before November.

Beyond the noise, the race carries real stakes: the winner won’t just represent Ohio, they will help decide which party controls the U.S. Senate.

Democrats hold 47 seats and need to gain at least four to take the majority, with the vice president casting tie-breaking votes.

Outside groups are already pouring money into the race. The GOP’s Senate Leadership Fund pledged $79 million to back Husted. Another conservative group, the Sentinel Action Fund, plans to spend more than $8 million. The Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC announced on Tuesday that it will spend $40 million.

Both campaigns will be well-funded, that’s a given. The question is what else it will take to win in November.

“It’s the economy, stupid.”

No matter the issue of the moment, voters tend to return to one fundamental question: Are they better off than the last time they voted?

For a majority of Ohioans, the answer is no.

Fifty-six percent of voters told Bowling Green pollsters in April that the economy has gotten worse over the last year.

Gas prices in Ohio have risen $2 per gallon since February, according to GasBuddy.com. Utility bills are also rising, driven by growing energy demand from data centers. And while grocery inflation has slowed since the pandemic, the price of staples like eggs and butter remains high.

“While (President) Donald Trump has won the state handily three times, we see a lot of trouble brewing for him and his policies in the state,” BGSU political science professor Robert Alexander said in a statement. “He has had a negative approval rating for a year now, and many of his policies are not popular.”

In fact, Alexander’s poll found 15% of Trump voters say they regret their vote to at least “some degree.”

Niven sees that dissatisfaction as an opening for Democrats.

“The only path for Democrats in Ohio is an economic one,” Niven said.

Niven, who previously worked for Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, said the party’s newer coalition of young, highly educated voters is not large enough to carry a statewide race on its own. Instead, he said, Democrats must win back part of their old base.

That includes working-class voters—particularly in places like the Mahoning Valley—who once supported Brown but shifted to Republicans in recent elections.

Incumbency advantage?

Columbus Republican strategist Terry Casey agrees the economy will drive the race, but he still sees an advantage for Husted.

“Sherrod is not the party in power, but he’s viewed as the guy that’s been there forever,” Casey said. “If he’s been there three decades, why hasn’t he solved the problem?”

Husted spent decades in state government, but he was appointed to the U.S. Senate in January 2025.

“Husted can legitimately say I just got there,” Casey said.

It might sound strange for the incumbent to portray himself as the outsider, but both Casey and Niven thought it was a smart move. Ohio’s last two senators were both political newcomers. And both parties’ nominees for governor don’t have much prior political experience.

“Clearly,” Casey said, “the outsider is a better uniform to be wearing.”

Turnout math

For Democrats, the path to victory runs through Cuyahoga County, where voter turnout has declined over the past decade.

About 64% of registered voters cast ballots in 2024, down from 71% in 2020 and 69% in 2016, according to data from the county board of elections.

Voter turnout in some southeast Cleveland precincts has fallen by as much as 70% compared to peak years, even as the number of registered voters has grown.

Reversing that trend will be critical for Brown.

“Democrats have not been able to excite those people,” Casey said. But that doesn’t mean Republicans don’t have their own turnout problems to solve.

Trump, even with his declining popularity, is still a “turnout machine” for Republican voters, and he won’t be on the ballot in November.

Both Niven and Casey said the GOP has to get people excited about Husted and their gubernatorial candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy.

“If voters stay home because they don’t like Vivek, it may well pull Husted down,” Niven said.