Jon Ossoff

Senator Jon Ossoff’s chances of winning the 2028 Democratic presidential primary surged past Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on prediction markets, as speculation about who could jump into the race continues.

The 2028 presidential field could begin coming into view in the months ahead with candidates potentially announcing their campaigns as early as next year after the midterms. On the Democratic side, prospective candidates are already testing their messages and heading to key primary states to build up their name recognition and make inroads with voters. Ossoff, who represents Georgia in the U.S. Senate, has been named as a potential candidate as he runs for reelection this year.

Although the first votes won’t be cast for more than a year, polls and prediction markets can signal which candidates have early momentum among the electorate. Donors and voters can use these early signals to gauge whether a candidate is viable, so the numbers matter to a candidate's ability to fundraise and garner media attention. They also measure initial name recognition of potential candidates.

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Newsweek reached out to Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez’s teams for comment via email.

Jon Ossoff’s Chances Surge in Prediction Markets

Ossoff has downplayed talk of a 2028 presidential run, but his chances have increased on prediction markets in recent weeks. On Friday, his chances rose to 16 percent, surpassing Ocasio-Cortez’s 14 percent on Polymarket. Only California Governor Gavin Newsom had a higher chance of winning the nomination at 20 percent.

One month earlier, Ossoff had a 9 percent chance of winning the nomination; he had less than a 4 percent chance of winning at the start of the year on January 1, according to Polymarket.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris had a 7 percent chance of winning, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro had a 5 percent chance.

Ossoff’s chances have also increased on Kalshi, where he had a 16 percent chance of winning on Friday compared to Newsom’s 18 percent and Ocasio-Cortez’s 15 percent.

What Latest Polling Shows About Democrats’ 2028 Chances

A new Emerson College poll pointed to Buttigieg as the front-runner to win the nomination, with 19 percent saying they would vote for him, followed by Newsom at 17 percent.

Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez each received 13 percent in that poll, while Harris polled at 8 percent.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear received 7 percent, while Shapiro received 5 percent support. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker polled at 3 percent, while 2 percent said they would vote for California Representative Ro Khanna. An additional 13 percent said they were undecided about who they would support for the nomination.

It surveyed 574 Democrats from July 19-20 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A McLaughlin poll found Harris leading with 28 percent support, followed by Newsom at 17 percent and Ocasio-Cortez at 10 percent. Eight percent backed Buttigieg, while Arizona Senator Mark Kelly received 7 percent support.

Notably, Ossoff was not included in that poll. It surveyed 1,000 general election voters from July 15-21, 2026.

Ossoff Running for Reelection in Swing State Georgia

Ossoff has said he is not launching a White House bid, telling CNN, “I am not running for president in 2028; I have no interest in running for president in 2028.”

He said he is “laser-focused” on winning reelection in Georgia this year in a race the Cook Political Report forecasts as Lean Democrat.

He is currently running for reelection in Georgia, a critical battleground state that has become more competitive in recent elections. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball view the race as Lean Democrat as he faces a challenge from GOP Representative Mike Collins.

A strong showing in this year's Senate race could fuel calls for him to run in 2028 as Democrats search for a candidate who can win in purple states. Some Democrats view Ossoff as a candidate who may be able to unite the party, which has faced divisions between the more progressive and moderate factions ahead of the midterms.

A new independent poll of the race found Ossoff with a lead.

Ossoff received support from 52 percent of respondents in the latest AARP poll, compared to Collins’ 43 percent. Five percent said they were undecided about who they would support.

The poll was conducted on behalf of AARP by Fabrizio Ward, a Republican pollster, and Impact Research, a Democratic pollster. It surveyed 1,060 likely voters across Georgia from July 13-16, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Interviews were conducted on cellphones, landlines and SMS-to-web.

Some 2028 Democrats haven’t ruled out running. Harris, who has traveled to states like Michigan and South Carolina in recent months, suggested she could run again without making a formal announcement.

“I might. I am thinking about it,” she told Reverend Al Sharpton in April after he asked whether she planned to run for president in 2028 during the National Action Network’s annual convention. Harris noted she “served for four years being a heartbeat away from the presidency of the United States.”

“I spent countless hours in my West Wing office footsteps away from the Oval Office. I spent countless hours in the Oval Office and the Situation Room. I know what the job is, and I know what it requires,” she said.

Newsom discussed the possibility of running in a June 2025 interview with The Wall Street Journal.

“I'm not thinking about running, but it's a path that I could see unfold,” he said.

Ocasio-Cortez addressed presidential speculation in a conversation with David Axelrod, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, in May.

"My ambition is to change this country,” she said. “Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers' rights are forever, women's rights, all of that, and so anyways...to a finer point to your question is that when you aren't attached, when you haven't been like fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old, it is tremendously liberating."