Jon Ossoff

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Jon Ossoff surged against California Governor Gavin Newsom in Polymarket’s 2028 Democratic presidential primary prediction market as polls continue showing a fluid race.

The 2028 presidential field could begin coming into view in the months ahead with candidates potentially announcing their campaigns as early as next year, after the midterms. On the Democratic side, prospective candidates are already testing their messages and heading to key primary states to build up their name recognition and make inroads with voters.

Prediction markets offer one glimpse into how Americans are feeling about the 2028 field early on.

Read More on News

They allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Newsweek reached out to spokespeople for Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez and Ossoff for comment via email.

AOC, Jon Ossoff Close in on Gavin Newsom

Polymarket’s latest predictions for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary showed Ocasio-Cortez, the New York representative who is a favorite among progressives, and Ossoff, who has represented Georgia in the Senate since 2021, as having an increasing chance of winning the nomination.

Ocasio-Cortez on Tuesday had a 15 percent chance of winning the nomination, up from a 9 percent chance of winning one month earlier. Ossoff, meanwhile, had a 14 percent chance of winning, more than double his chances a month earlier when he had less than a 6 percent chance of securing the nomination.

Newsom’s chances fell to 18 percent on Tuesday, from 25 percent on June 7, according to Polymarket. Former Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances held steady at around 8 percent.

Ocasio-Cortez and Ossoff have seen similar surges on Kalshi’s market, with Ocasio-Cortez’s chances rising from 10 percent in June to 16 percent on Tuesday. Ossoff’s chances, meanwhile, increased from 9 percent to 14 percent in the same time frame, while Newsom’s chances hovered around 21 or 22 percent.

What Do Polls Show?

While prediction markets favor other candidates, Harris has led in recent polling.

A FocalData poll this week showed her support at 33 percent, compared with Newsom’s 15 percent, Ocasio-Cortez’s 9 percent and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s 8 percent.

Seven percent of respondents said they would vote for Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, while 5 percent indicated support for Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker’s support stood at 3 percent, while Ossoff and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear received 2 percent support.

It surveyed 764 registered voters nationwide from June 26 to 30.

The latest poll from McLaughlin also showed Harris with a lead.

Harris’ support stood at 26 percent in the poll, while 16 percent of respondents said they would vote for Newsom and 9 percent for Ocasio-Cortez. Eight percent said they would vote for Buttigieg.

Support for Illinois Governor Pritzker, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Shapiro stood at 5 percent each. Three percent said they would vote for Kelly, while Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer received 2 percent each, according to the poll.

The poll surveyed 1,000 general election voters from June 17-23.

A Harvard/Harris poll released in April showed Harris with support from 50 percent of Democrats in the primary race, up from 41 percent in March and 39 percent in January and February.

Newsom followed Harris with 22 percent support, while Shapiro received 9 percent. Ocasio-Cortez received 8 percent, while Pritzker received 6 percent. Five percent said they would vote for someone else.

The poll surveyed 2,745 registered voters April 23-26 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.87 percentage points.

What 2028 Democratic Contenders Have Said About Their Plans

Some 2028 Democrats haven’t ruled out running. Harris, who has traveled to states like Michigan and South Carolina in recent months, suggested she could run again without making a formal announcement.

“I might. I am thinking about it,” she told Reverend Al Sharpton in April after he asked whether she planned to run for president in 2028 during the National Action Network’s annual convention. Harris noted she “served for four years being a heartbeat away from the presidency of the United States.”

“I spent countless hours in my West Wing office footsteps away from the Oval Office. I spent countless hours in the Oval Office and the Situation Room. I know what the job is, and I know what it requires,” she said.

Newsom discussed the possibility of running in a June 2025 interview with The Wall Street Journal.

“I'm not thinking about running, but it's a path that I could see unfold,” he said.

Ocasio-Cortez addressed presidential speculation in a conversation with David Axelrod, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, earlier this year.

"My ambition is to change this country,” she said. “Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever. A living wage is forever, workers' rights are forever, women's rights, all of that, and so anyways...to a finer point to your question is that when you aren't attached, when you haven't been like fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old, it is tremendously liberating."

Ossoff has said he is not planning to run, telling CNN, “I am not running for president in 2028, I have no interest in running for president in 2028.”

He said he is “laser-focused” on winning reelection in Georgia this year in a race the Cook Political Report forecasts as "Lean Democratic."

Others have also indicated they do not plan to run.