Joni Ernst

Late Tuesday, the Cook Political Report moved its rating of Iowa's Senate race from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican," after Democrat state Rep. Josh Turk secured his party's nomination to face incumbent GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, in the race to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa.

According to the report, Hinson holds a significant fundraising edge and has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, who carried Iowa by 13 percentage points in 2024.

However, the report added that rising fuel and fertilizer prices linked to the ongoing war with Iran have made the overall environment more favorable for Iowa Democrats.

Turek won the Democratic Party primary with nearly 63% of the vote, and Hinson captured nearly 74% of the vote in the Republican primary. The two will face off in the November general election.

Iowa voters have not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2008, and the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has pledged $29 million in advertising support for Hinson.

Despite those advantages, Democrats have grown increasingly optimistic about their prospects in Iowa as economic concerns and backlash to Trump's tariffs have also created challenges for Republicans.

Politico reported earlier Tuesday that Hinson has described the Middle East conflict as a potential political liability if it continues.

"I do hope we can get this done by the next couple of weeks. If it drags on beyond that, it's a political liability for us too, because we've lost Iowa soldiers," Hinson said last month. "I've been to four funerals since December; it's awful."

Her comments reflect broader concerns within the GOP that economic pressures tied to the conflict could weigh on Republican candidates heading into November.

"Even though Hinson is a strong candidate who has amassed a formidable war chest, the overall environment in the Hawkeye State is an increasingly favorable one for Democrats given backlash to tariffs and rising fuel and fertilizer prices as a result of the Iran War," Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, wrote.

"Additionally, as many as three of the state's four congressional districts could be competitive, and the governor's race is rated as a Toss Up," she added.