Julia Letlow

U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow and farmer Jamie Davis are taking sharply contrasting routes as they run for the same job – to be the next senator from Louisiana.

Letlow, a Republican, is running a low-profile campaign because, analysts said, she expects the GOP tilt in Louisiana will power her to victory on Nov. 3. Even though she has much more money, Letlow has yet to bring out the big guns on commercial TV. Letlow has also tied herself closely to President Donald Trump, who endorsed her.

Davis, a Democrat, is holding open meetings across the state, trying to introduce himself to as many voters as possible. He has built a grassroots network of campaign volunteers, trying to reach Democrats and political independents who need a push to vote. Davis is keeping his distance from national Democrats.

“It sounds like both are running a sensible campaign to reach their targeted voters,” said Jay Dardenne, who won four statewide races to serve as secretary of state and lieutenant governor. “Julia obviously is a huge favorite and is raising money and talking to key people who can be influential. Jamie has a more difficult challenge – he is doing what he can to get enough free media to counter her huge financial advantage.”

A statewide listening tour

Most candidates in the final weeks of a campaign would be giving their stump speech at every stop – making their main points to win over voters.

Letlow, however, is engaged in what she calls a “listening tour” that will take her to all 64 parishes in Louisiana. This approach is more typical of incumbents.

Letlow is meeting with small groups at mostly closed events where she takes questions and gives locals the chance to express views on topics that she would address next year as a senator if elected.

“I want to hear what people are dealing with, what their issues are, what their concerns are,” Letlow said in a phone interview Tuesday. “As you can imagine, it’s different from parish to parish. It’s so important for me to learn from them.”

Letlow described many of the events as “roundtable discussions” so that “we can keep it intimate and people can share what’s going on in their parish as opposed me giving the same stump speech over and over again. I think that’s really resonating with people.”

Free-wheeling public events

Davis’ events are more free-wheeling, frequently featuring laughter, shouts of support and applause from audiences.

One evening in Gretna in late August, he told a packed audience at St. Paul’s Baptist Church that he is a farmer from Tensas Parish, in northeast Louisiana, who is running on a nonpartisan platform.

Democrats in other states are blaming President Donald Trump for voters’ concerns. But Davis barely uttered the president’s name. Instead, he used his bio to connect with their everyday worries.

“What I’ve learned most about Louisiana is that people are hurting,” Davis said. “Everybody is struggling.”

Davis talked about his 13 grandchildren and how he wants them to have a better future in rural Louisiana.

“So Paw Paw gotta do something about that,” he said. People in the crowd jumped up and applauded, with several shouting, “Yeah, you right!”

Orin Grant, the pastor of the church, was sitting just to Davis’ right.

“Paw Paw!” Grant cried out, prompting more applause. “Paw Paw!”

National political headwinds

Letlow is campaigning while facing headwinds with a slew of national polls showing a drop in Trump’s approval rating nationally. One recent poll showed that Trump, who won Louisiana with 60 percent of the vote in 2024, now has an approval rating that is nearly matched by his disapproval rating.

Letlow jumped into the Senate race in January only after Trump endorsed her over U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, who angered the president by voting to convict him of inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol by his supporters. She knocked Cassidy out of the race in the May primary.

When Letlow won the Republican nomination on June 27, she began her remarks by saying, “I am so incredibly filled with gratitude for the greatest president this country has ever had, Donald J. Trump!”

John Couvillon is a veteran pollster in Baton Rouge who did surveys for state treasurer John Fleming, who was defeated by Letlow for the Republican nomination.

“She’s weak among White independents, in suburban areas, and there’s some defection among White Republicans for being too close to Trump, from bitter feelings from the primary and from economic anxiety,” Couvillon said. “When you’re close to Trump, you’re seeing an impact, and it’s not a positive one. (Sen.) John Kennedy has begun to be more independent of Trump lately. Julia has not done that.”

Davis paid for a poll conducted by Hart Research, a longstanding Democratic firm in Washington. It showed that Letlow led him by only four points, 48% to 44% in mid-September.

“The fact that Jamie is within the margin of error of Congresswoman Letlow is notable given her name recognition is double his (82% for Letlow, versus 41% for Davis),” Hart Research wrote in a memo. “However, Letlow is a much polarizing figure, while Jamie has strong popularity among the Louisiana voters that are currently familiar with him. And among the nearly quarter of voters that are not registered with either major party, and thus an important swing group, Letlow’s ‘negative’ (42%) far outpaces her ‘positive’ (28%).”

Asked about Davis’ poll, Letlow called it “bogus” and said, “We feel confident about winning the election. But we’re not going to take anything for granted. I’m going to keep crisscrossing the state and work for every vote to ensure that I can keep delivering for Louisiana in the Senate.