Julia Letlow

U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow appeared to hold an insurmountable advantage coming out of the Republican Senate primary on May 16 when she led state Treasurer John Fleming by 17 points and nearly won the election outright.

But signs have emerged before the June 27 Republican Senate runoff that the outcome will be much closer, and a victory by Fleming is possible, even though Letlow’s side is badly outspending him, and she has President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

In what will be a low-turnout election, Fleming appears to have supporters who are more committed to him, especially among Republicans who back him because of his vigorous opposition to carbon capture and sequestration. That’s a new technology where companies want to build pipelines to transport carbon dioxide from industrial plants to locations where it would be injected deep underground.

A sign of Fleming’s support among the Republican base occurred last Saturday when Gov. Jeff Landry had to personally intervene to keep 150 members of the state central committee from endorsing Fleming over Letlow. One Fleming supporter said she was threatened by a surrogate of Landry’s with punishment by the governor if she voted to back Fleming.

The committee voted to issue no endorsement. But it was striking to observers that, even though Letlow has the endorsement of Landry and Trump, the only question that day was whether Fleming would get the endorsement. Letlow had no shot at it.

To be sure, most political analysts expect Letlow to defeat Fleming, given a steep fundraising advantage and a long list of endorsements.

Polls suggest tight race

Still, a month after the primary, two independent surveys by New Orleans pollster Greg Rigamer have shown that Fleming has closed the gap, and the race is now neck-and-neck.

A poll of 600 likely Republican runoff voters taken June 15-16 by Rigamer showed Letlow with 40.2%, and Fleming with 38.2%.

That poll showed a slight gain by Letlow compared to a similar survey a week earlier by Rigamer that had Fleming leading, 40.3% to 37.7%.

Super lobbyist Alton Ashy, a Letlow supporter, paid for both polls.

Jay Dardenne, who won elections to the state Senate and to be secretary of state and lieutenant governor, cited his own election history to caution anyone from counting out Fleming.

In 1991, Dardenne trailed in the primary, 41-48%, for a Baton Rouge seat in the state Senate. But he won the runoff, 52-48%.

“The lesson is to never give up on a race where you appear to be trailing significantly,” Dardenne said. “On its face, you would say Julia is a heavy favorite given the margin. But it’s certainly possible to make up that differential based on my experience.”

Meanwhile, two Democrats are competing on June 27 for the Democratic nomination to face the Republican runoff winner in the Nov. 3 general election.

They are Jamie Davis, a farmer from northeast Louisiana who led the May 16 primary with 45%, and Gary Crockett, a New Orleans business owner, who captured 26% that day. Davis has the endorsement of the Louisiana Democratic Party and New Orleans Mayor Helena Moreno.

Tiny turnout expected

The biggest question during the primary was whether Cassidy could survive Trump’s effort to unseat him. With that settled, interest in the race has dropped sharply.

Early voting figures indicate that the overall turnout for the June 27 primary will be about 15%, down from the primary turnout of 28%.

The drop-off during early voting has been higher among Democrats than Republicans. Rigamer believes that’s because Democrats turned out to register their anger with Landry’s move on redistricting – which turned a Democrat congressional seat into a Republican one and delayed the congressional elections – by voting against the governor’s constitutional amendments.

Despite their ideological differences, Letlow and Davis have one thing in common: Both have refused to debate their opponent.

Letlow’s decision – she also wouldn’t accept calls by Sen. Bill Cassidy for televised debates during the primary – has raised questions among some Republicans about her ability to think on her feet.

“She can’t talk about what she believes,” said Christy Haik, president of Louisiana Republican Assembly, a conservative grassroots group. “That’s what has given him (Fleming) the momentum he has maintained when people wrote him off.”

Davis rejected most recently an offer from host Will Sutton to debate Crockett on his WBOK-AM talk radio morning show in New Orleans.

Davis said he said no on the advice of his campaign attorney because Crockett has threatened to sue Davis over Crockett’s allegation that Davis workers tore up some of Crockett’s campaign signs.

Most of the attention lately has been focused on the Republican ledger because whoever captures the GOP runoff on June 27 will be expected to win a state where no Democrat has been elected to the Senate since 2008.

Letlow has big advantages

There’s plenty of information to indicate that Letlow will emerge victorious.

The candidates who Trump has endorsed in this election cycle nationally have mostly won their races. In addition, she and her outside supporters are spending much more money to get out her message.

The latest quarterly campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission, which cover April 27 thru June 7, show that Letlow raised $732,000 and had $1.7 million on hand.

Fleming raised only $86,000. How much money he still had is unclear because of his personal loans to the campaign.

Davis raised $665,000 and had $383,000 on hand.

Crockett missed the June 15 reporting deadline. He blamed “a technical issue” with his computer but said he filed the report Wednesday, and it would show that he raised less than $50,000.

Two outside groups are spending heavily to elect Letlow.

One is The Accountability Project, and it is led by Jay Connaughton and Jason Hebert, who have worked for Landry. The group is organized so it doesn’t have to disclose its donors.

In one ad, The Accountability Project showed a video clip of Fleming from 2008 to make it seem as if he supports undocumented immigrants coming across the border. The ad cut off the video so viewers didn’t see what followed: Fleming immediately corrected himself.

An AI-created ad showed Fleming driving a bus full of illegal aliens.

“I don’t care about which ad you’re looking at, there isn’t any truth in any of it,” Fleming told a group of 50 people in Covington Monday night.

He noted that he scored a 96% rating from Numbers USA, which favors strict controls on legal and illegal immigration, from when he served in the House from 2009-16. The group gives Letlow an 80% score.

Another group, American Mission, is spending up to $2.7 million to promote Letlow, according to AdImpact, which is tracking election spending.

The group supports light regulation of AI and data centers, according to press accounts.

“She’ll secure American energy dominance, unleash American innovation and always stand will law enforcement,” an announcer says in the ad in which Trump appears twice endorsing Letlow.

“The United States cannot allow China to outpace us in AI, and Washington should not smother American innovation with heavy-handed rules that drive jobs, investment and technological leadership overseas,” Letlow said in a statement, adding that “AI must not be used to exploit kids.”

In an interview, Fleming said he supports data centers coming to Louisiana but insisted that they not use so much water or electricity to drive up costs for residential customers. He also expressed concern that AI could be used to create “a police state” in the United States.

Another metric suggesting Letlow will win: She has the endorsement of a majority of state House and Senate Republicans, along with U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise and U.S. Rep. Clay Higgins.

With that and Trump’s support, Letlow is the quasi-incumbent, said Aaron Broussard, who won 12 elections without a loss in Jefferson Parish.

“A low turnout has an incumbent advantage,” he said. “The incumbent has a machine, a network. Incumbents get the endorsements of other incumbents, so they get that support, too.”

Fleming had a fired-up crowd when he spoke to a group Monday night that opposes carbon capture and sequestration.

“He has been with us from the very beginning,” said Brad LeBlanc, a veteran geologist who said the proposed pipelines and storage facilities present a grave danger because of the likelihood they would leak carbon dioxide.