Julia Letlow

Could Jamie Davis, the Democratic Senate candidate, possibly knock off Julia Letlow, his heavily favored Republican opponent?

That question acquired increased currency Wednesday as political insiders digested the full results from the seven-day early voting period that ended Tuesday – results which showed a big overall turnout so far, more Democrats voting than Republicans and a disproportionately large share of Black voters casting ballots.

All three elements are key to Davis potentially shocking the political world by defeating Letlow next week in a state that Donald Trump won by 22 points only two years ago.

Still, overcoming that Republican advantage presents a huge challenge, and here’s another one: No African-American has won a statewide election in Louisiana in 150 years.

Political analysts said Letlow’s side showed its first bout of nervousness Wednesday when a super PAC began spending $400,000 to broadcast the first attack ad on Davis, a third-generation farmer from Tensas Parish.

“His values are not Louisiana’s values,” the ad says in block letters.

Few political pros on Wednesday were willing to say that Davis on Tuesday would defeat Letlow, a third-term member of the U.S. House.

But most of them believe that Davis has transformed a romp for Letlow into a tight battle.

“He’s been a strong candidate,” acknowledged Derek Babcock, the chair of the Louisiana Republican Party, during an interview Wednesday on WBOK-AM in New Orleans.

Scott Wilfong, a veteran Republican political operative in Baton Rouge, predicted Wednesday that Letlow would outpace Davis by six to 10 points – a much closer result than what he expected a few weeks ago.

Speaking with talk show host Jim Engster on WRKF-FM in Baton Rouge, Wilfong cautioned that Davis has no guarantee that on Election Day he will replicate his strong showing during the early voting period.

The figures released by the Secretary of State’s office Wednesday show that Black voters accounted for 34.4% of the early voters – yet their share of the overall electorate is only 31.3%.

Davis needs to receive at least 90% of the Black vote to win on Nov. 3, while collecting about 30% of the White vote, according to the conventional formula for a Democrat to triumph, which also calls for a Black voter share of at least 32%.

The problem for Democrats is that the turnout of Black voters usually lags their share of the electorate.

Trey Ourso, a veteran Democratic political operative, noted that when then-Gov. John Bel Edwards, a Democrat, was narrowly reelected in 2019, his team was thrilled when Black voters accounted for 31.3% of the early voters.

The 34.4% share this year, he said, “says there is a lot of enthusiasm among minority voters, which corresponds with everything we’re seeing around the country. People are expressing their dissatisfaction at the ballot box.”

The overall turnout of early voters of 522,000 this year was the highest in a non-presidential election since 2008, when early voting began to be popular in Louisiana, said John Couvillon, a Baton Rouge-based pollster and political analyst.

Digging into the numbers, Couvillon found several positive results for Davis: The turnout of voters in heavily blue Orleans Parish and purple Jefferson Parish was 73% higher than in 2022, when Louisiana last held a Senate election. But the turnout in red Tangipahoa and St. Tammany parishes was only 43% higher, Couvillon found.

Yet another positive sign for Davis: Democrats held the edge over Republicans during early voting, 42%-39%, noted Greg Rigamer, a New Orleans-based pollster and political analyst.

Because a chunk of Democrats typically vote Republican, Rigamer expects that Democrats and Republicans will essentially cancel each other out on Election Day.

“Independents will tip the scale, absolutely,” Rigamer said, noting they account for about 28% of the electorate, while Republicans and Democrats each account for about 36%.

Couvillon said his polling in various races around Louisiana shows 10% to 20% of Republican voters defecting to Davis – numbers that make him competitive with Letlow.

But to win, Davis must overcome a strong conservative tide in Louisiana that has led Republican candidates to win the last five Senate elections since 2010. In a Democrat’s best finish since then, Sen. Mary Landrieu lost her reelection in 2014 by 12 points.

Randal Gaines, the Democratic state chair, told listeners on WBOK that he spoke on Tuesday with Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, about Davis’ race. But no national Democratic money has come to Louisiana so far.

“Julia Letlow is going to win because she has a proven record of delivering real results for Louisiana,” her campaign said in a statement. “Louisianans know she has secured hundreds of millions for our communities, fought for parents’ rights in education, and worked to lower costs for working families, a record that stands in stark contrast to an opponent who would be nothing more than a rubber stamp for Chuck Schumer and the radical left.”

In the meantime, Davis came under attack from an ad by the Accountability Project, a super PAC run by political operatives connected with Gov. Jeff Landry that slammed state Treasurer John Fleming during the Republican primary election with commercials that Fleming said were dishonest and misleading.

Roy Fletcher, a long-time political strategist in Baton Rouge who works for Democrats and Republicans, including Fleming, said Letlow’s side broadcast the ad to rally conservatives to vote.

“They have a problem,” Fletcher said. “It’s called turnout.”

In the ad, viewers see an image of Davis walking slowly toward the camera until his face takes up half the screen.

In 30 seconds, the ad says that “California and New York are bankrolling his campaign.” Information provided by the Accountability Project says the two are his top fundraising states.

The ad also says Davis wants “gun rights taken away,” favors “socialized medicine,” wants “illegals to become citizens,” wants “ICE eliminated” and favors “weakened sentences for criminals.”

The group – which is run by conservative political operatives Jay Connaughton and Jason Hebert – cites various comments from Davis earlier this year on its website.

In an interview two weeks ago with conservative talk radio host Joe Cunningham in Lafayette, Davis said he carries a rifle with him when he drives around his farm in case he spots a feral hog.

“I have to open up on them,” Davis said. “I’m a gun-packing Democrat.”

During that same interview, Davis said, “I want the borders closed.”

In an interview earlier this month with The Times-Picayune | The Advocate, he said he wants ICE to focus on “criminals” and that undocumented immigrants who have been in the country without violating the law for 10 years “should have a fair way of becoming a citizen.”

The Davis campaign contested the ad’s claims on Wednesday.

“Instead of debating Jamie Davis, Julia Letlow is hiding behind dark-money groups pushing a distorted version of his record, including ads featuring a fake, AI-generated image of Jamie,” the Davis campaign said. “She wouldn’t enter this race without Trump’s endorsement, she won’t defend her own record in a debate, and now she’s relying on a super PAC’s last-minute desperate attacks rather than answering for her own decisions.”

Email Tyler Bridges at [email protected].