Julia Letlow

Can U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy survive to fight another day?

That’s the biggest question on Saturday’s primary election ballot, with polls showing that Cassidy may not finish first or second in the Republican Senate primary to keep alive his hopes of winning a third term in the Senate.

Trying to unseat Cassidy are U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming. All three have run as the candidate most aligned with President Donald Trump.

The outcome has drawn extensive coverage from news outlets outside of Louisiana as a litmus test of Trump’s power and popularity. Trump wants to defeat Cassidy because he joined Democrats in voting to convict the president on impeachment charges stemming from the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol by Trump supporters.

Trump has endorsed Letlow, who has emerged as the front-runner thanks to the president’s backing, polls show. Gov. Jeff Landry, who is close with Trump, has also endorsed Letlow and has raised big dollars for outside groups attacking Fleming to keep him from knocking out Letlow in the primary.

The Senate race is the marquee election on Saturday, when voters will also decide whether to approve five constitutional amendments. Also on the ballot are elections for the Louisiana Supreme Court, the Public Service Commission, the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education and local races, including who will be mayor of Kenner and president of Lafourche Parish.

Voting takes place between 7 a.m. and 8 p.m.

Cassidy, Letlow, Fleming and business owner Mark Spencer of Belle Chasse are running in the Republican Senate primary.

Competing in the Democratic Senate primary are policy analyst Nick Albares, who lives in New Orleans and has the endorsement of his former boss, ex-Gov. John Bel Edwards; Jamie Davis, a farmer in northeast Louisiana running with the endorsement of the Louisiana Democratic Party; and Gary Crockett, a business owner in New Orleans.

The three Democratic Senate candidates appeared Friday at a forum hosted by Jim Engster on his “Talk Louisiana” public radio program.

Albares, Davis and Crockett criticized Trump for launching the war against Iran. They also knocked plans underway by Landry and the Republican-controlled state Legislature to turn the Black-majority district held by U.S. Rep. Cleo Fields of Baton Rouge into a safe Republican seat, as legislators draw a new map for the state’s six congressional districts.

How will ‘no party’ voting go?

Voters will choose among the Republican and Democratic Senate candidates in separate party primaries Saturday. No-party voters can choose whether to vote for either the Republican or Democratic candidates, but not both. To do so, no-party voters must fill out a one-page Declaration of Ballot Choice.

Cassidy is relying on a good-sized turnout of no-party voters for him.

But he told reporters on Friday that he fears a significant number of no-party voters won’t understand the new system and won’t vote for him as a result.

“The system should be made to serve the voter, not asking the voter to serve the system,” he said.

Landry and Republican legislators instituted the semi-closed party primary for this year’s elections.

Past open primaries – where voters could choose among Republican and Democratic candidates on the same ballot – produced turnout rates of about 50%.

But this year, the office of Secretary of State Nancy Landry projecting a voter participation of only 28%. That would equal about 830,000 voters.

About 257,000 people have already voted, either by absentee ballot or during the May 2-9 early voting period, according to pollster John Couvillon, who conducted surveys for Fleming. Of the 257,000 voters, only about 15% have been no-party, Couvillon said. In all, 27% of Louisiana’s voters are registered as no-party.

If no candidate wins a majority in either party primary, Cassidy needs to finish first or second to advance to the runoff election on June 27 and avoid becoming on Saturday only the second incumbent Louisiana senator to lose reelection since 1932.

Early voting from May 2-9 showed widespread confusion with the semi-closed primary system and with Gov. Landry’s decision to declare an “emergency” and cancel the races for the six House elections, even though absentee ballot voting was underway. Landry made that decision after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the state’s current congressional districts are unconstitutional.

During early voting, Black voters turned out in large numbers proportionally, with analysts citing anger at the move to eliminate seats held by Black elected officials.

Anyone with concerns or questions on Saturday can speak with an election commissioner at their precinct or call the Secretary of State election hotline at 1800 883-2805.

Voters can go to geauxvote.com or download the GeauxVote app to get information about their voting information, their sample ballot, their voting precinct location, and other info, according to the Secretary of State’s office.

Last-minute campaigning

On Friday, Cassidy and Fleming kept up their attacks on Letlow, while an outside group associated with Gov. Landry continued its attacks on Fleming.

Cassidy mostly stuck to his home base in Baton Rouge, speaking to a disabled veterans’ group at a hotel and talking to reporters at a gun range.

Afterward, he stepped into the range and, while shooting an AR-15, hit the bullseye on five of six shots. He proudly held up the paper target afterward to show off his marksmanship.

Fleming appeared on the talk show radio programs of two conservative stalwarts, Jeff Crouere and Moon Griffon.

On both, he blamed Letlow for attack ads broadcast by the Accountability Project, one of the pro-Landry outside groups, that say Fleming is soft on border security, didn’t serve as Trump’s deputy chief of staff in his first term and voted for carbon capture and sequestration bills as a member of Congress more than a decade ago.

“It’s dishonest politics, and it’s boomeranging on them,” Fleming said on Griffon’s show.

Letlow, who is leading in most polls, went to Cameron Parish with Landry and Energy Secretary Chris Wright to celebrate plans for a $13 billion LNG facility.

In a phone interview, Letlow said her key message is that she has Trump’s message and would be a great public servant in the Senate.

Letlow noted that she’s not involved with the Accountability Project and said Fleming’s comments “are another of his conspiracy theories.”

Five constitutional amendments

Voters will decide whether to approve five amendments to the state constitution.

Amendment 1 would give the Louisiana Legislature more power to designate which positions have civil service protections.

Amendment 2 would create a school district in St. George, the new city in East Baton Rouge Parish.

Amendment 3 would liquidate several education trust fund accounts and use the money to pay off retirement debt, which would fund a $2,250 raise for teachers statewide.

Amendment 4 would give parishes the option to eliminate taxes on business inventory.

Amendment 5 would raise the mandatory retirement age for judges from 70 to 75.

State Supreme Court

Voters in the first district of the Louisiana Supreme Court will elect a new justice. That district covers Livingston, St. Tammany, Washington, Tangipahoa and St. Bernard parishes and a smidgen of Orleans Parish.

Two Republicans are running for the seat: William Burris a district court judge in St. Tammany and Washington Parishes, and Blair Edwards a 1st Circuit Court of Appeals judge and former juvenile judge.

Board of Elementary and Secondary Education

Three Republicans are running in a primary election for the 1st District seat on BESE, which sets policy for Louisiana’s K-12 school system. The district covers St. Tammany Parish and parts of Orleans, Jefferson and Tangipahoa parishes.