Marie Perez

Two-term U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and her Republican challenger, Washington state Sen. John Braun, are tied heading into August’s primary for what is viewed as one of the most competitive House races this year, a new poll shows.

Braun, a retired Navy captain and current Republican leader of the Washington Senate, is considered the strongest challenger Gluesenkamp Perez has faced, after she twice defeated Republican firebrand Joe Kent to represent southwest Washington’s 3rd District in Congress. The swing district narrowly favored Donald Trump in 2024 while Gluesenkamp Perez flipped the seat from Republican control in 2022 and won it again in 2024.

A poll of 500 likely voters conducted by Emerson College Polling earlier this month pegged Braun at 43% and Gluesenkamp Perez at 42%, with 16% of likely voters undecided.

After respondents were shown excerpts from the candidates’ statements from the August voter pamphlet, Braun received 45%, Gluesenkamp Perez received 44%, and 11% remained undecided.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, meaning the race is statistically tied.

The nonpartisan elections analysis group Cook Political Report rates the race a toss up, while rating all other Washington races for the U.S. House as a lock for Democrats in seven instances and sure wins for the Republican in two others.

The poll was commissioned by the Northwest Progressive Institute, a nonprofit that partners with unions, immigrants rights advocates and other Democratic-aligned groups. But its polls in the 3rd Congressional District in 2022 and 2024 proved highly accurate, finding that Gluesenkamp Perez would defeat Kent by a razor thin margin, it says.

The poll, conducted July 8-10, also found Braun and Gluesenkamp Perez about even among respondents who said they plan to vote in Washington’s Aug. 4 open primary, from which the top two voter getters will advance to the November general election. Braun received 26%, Gluesenkamp Perez received 25%, Democrat Brent Hennrich received 11% and no other candidate exceeded 5%, the Northwest Progressive Institute said. Twenty-six percent were undecided.

Nine candidates will appear on the August ballot, including four Democrats and three Republicans.

Gluesenkamp Perez is one of the most centrist Democrats in Congress and has earned the ire of many progressives in her district, which includes Clark County and also spans rural Cowlitz, Lewis, Pacific and Wahkiakum counties as well as portions of Skamania and Thurston counties, for occasionally voting with Republicans. In campaign appearances, she plays up her working class background as the former co-owner and operator, along with her husband Dean Gluesenkamp, of an auto repair shop. Last week, she hailed the final passage of a housing bill that included a proposal she put forth to streamline zoning and permitting rules.

Braun, who has repeatedly won elections to represent portions of Clark, Lewis, Cowlitz, Clark and Thurston counties in the Washington Senate, is viewed as a stronger candidate than Kent, who was allied with far-right activists and never held elected office. Both Kent and Braun won the endorsement of President Donald Trump.

The Emerson College poll found a difficult political environment for Republicans in the 3rd District in 2026.

>> 55% of likely voters said they disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while 39% said they approve and 6% were unsure.

>> 62% said Trump administration policies have increased the prices they pay for food, groceries, fuel, and basic household goods, while 25% said Trump’s policies decreased prices and 13% said they were unsure.