Marsha Blackburn

Less than a week before election day in Tennessee, a new poll shows the GOP gubernatorial primary to be a toss-up between U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn and U.S. Rep. John Rose — with Blackburn's once-commanding lead narrowed to 3.5 points as Rose surges.

Of 800 likely Republican primary voters surveyed, 34.5% said they'd support Blackburn, 31% supported Rose and 25.6% supported state Rep. Monty Fritts. Another 9% were undecided or declined to answer.

Rose held a narrow lead among those who had already voted, with 36% saying they'd voted for Rose, 35% voting for Blackburn, 27% for Fritts and 2% declining to answer.

The poll was conducted by OnMessage Inc. from July 23 to 25. Pollsters contacted 800 likely Republican primary voters, stratified by county to reflect historical turnout. It has a 3.5% margin of error.

“The race has closed up dramatically,” pollster Wes Anderson told The Tennessean. “As we fly into the final here next Thursday… it’s going to come down to whether Marsha can outrun the cheetah or the cheetah catches her. The momentum is clearly on Rose’s side.”

It's the first poll that's been made public since reports that Blackburn was the target of a U.S. Senate ethics investigation. The Tennessean exclusively reported July 30 that the probe ultimately determined Blackburn's office violated Senate ethics rules by using government resources to bolster her 2024 Senate reelection bid. The survey also came after Blackburn made headlines in Nashville for not answering questions from a NewsChannel5 TV reporter while waiting for a slow elevator.

The poll was not commissioned by any campaign. Anderson said the gubernatorial survey questions were added onto a survey for a corporate client. Anderson has worked for Rose in the past but is not currently associated with the Rose campaign. His business partner Brad Todd is working for Rose.

Blackburn's campaign manager Abigail Sigler criticized the poll.

"Any pollster who won't release the full demographics is hiding something," Sigler said. "This is a desperate attempt by political consultants to get their candidate to invest even more than the $13 million of his own money he's already poured in. Marsha Blackburn is going to be the Republican nominee and then the 51st Governor of the state of Tennessee."

Anderson said that in the three decades he’s polled in Tennessee, the gubernatorial primary is the closest primary race he’s seen.

“If I were a betting man, I would probably abstain from betting on this one. I don’t think I can call it, I think it’s that close,” Anderson said, calling victory "a jump ball."

“Does the bulwark that the Blackburn campaign has tried to put up survive the surge? Or does the surge and the momentum shift, accrue to John and beat her?" he said.

Rose’s campaign manager Chris Devaney said the poll is consistent with the campaign's internal data.

“This poll matches our own internal polling that shows that John Rose continues to gain momentum and Senator Blackburn’s numbers are collapsing,” Devaney said.

Polling around the governor's race has shown Rose consistently gaining on Blackburn since her 58 percentage point lead last January.

Earlier this month, the Rose campaign released an internal poll that found him just 15 points behind Blackburn, with 15% undecided. Days later, Blackburn's political strategist Ward Baker released an internal polling memo showing Blackburn with a 31-point lead during the same time frame.

A smaller separate poll of Republican and independent voters in the 5th Congressional District found Blackburn about 12 points ahead of Rose, with 16.5% undecided. The Tennessee Journal first reported the survey, which contacted 400 likely Republican voters via phone and text message on July 28 — days after the OnMessage poll.

Tori Venable, state director of Americans for Prosperity Action dismissed the OnMessage poll, saying it does not align with the data collected by AFP volunteers knocking doors for Blackburn.

AFP operatives have knocked on more than 150,000 doors across the state for the Blackburn campaign.

“I know this is a bs poll. How? @AFPStatePAC IS talking to thousands of Tennesseans every day,” Venable said.

Venable said AFP volunteers had more than 3,500 conversations with voters last week, and nearly 2,000 said they had already voted or planned to vote for Blackburn, while 438 told AFP volunteers they supported Rose, Fritts or someone else. About 32% were undecided.

“The big news is @VoteMarsha is going to be our next Governor!” Venable said in a social media post. “If every single undecided broke for one of the other guys and they somehow combined all the votes, then someone would be at 44%. Blackburn still wins.”