Marsha Blackburn

Internal polling from Marsha Blackburn’s campaign shows her with a 31-point lead in the Tennessee GOP primary for governor.

Blackburn’s rival, John Rose, has largely self-funded his campaign and released his own poll showing the race with 15 points.

While most of Blackburn’s campaign funds come from Tennessee, the majority of her individual donors are from out of state.

Internal polling shows U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn still holds a 31-point lead in the Republican primary for Tennessee governor, according to a poll circulated by her campaign.

Among 800 Republican primary voters, 51% said they’d vote for Blackburn, while 20% supported U.S. Rep. John Rose and 12% supported state Rep. Monty Fritts. Another 16% were undecided.

Blackburn's team released internal polling days after her rival Rose released data showing the race within 15 points. Rose’s poll showed him ahead among voters who had heard or read about the candidates.

Before that, polling consistently placed Blackburn with a minimum 42-point lead since last year.

In a confidential memo obtained by the Tennessean, Blackburn campaign strategist Ward Baker asserted that Blackburn “ha[s] the lead heading into Early Voting."

“The data paints a clear story — the Tennessee governor’s office is not for sale. Marsha Blackburn will be the Republican nominee for Governor of Tennessee in three weeks, and in January, she will be the 51st governor of Tennessee,” Baker wrote.

Polling was done by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who has worked with President Donald Trump and previously conducted polling for Blackburn’s campaign. It was conducted during the same window as the Rose poll, from June 28-30. The memo did not include a margin of error for Fabrizio’s poll.

'Governor's office is not for sale'

Baker took a swing at Rose, titling the memo “Tennessee governor’s office is not for sale.”

Rose has self-funded about 85% of his campaign by loaning himself nearly $9 million. Rose has had an uphill climb building name recognition across the state as he has never held statewide office.

“The Rose campaign believes they can buy this election with their candidates’ money — but Tennesseans disagree,” Baker wrote.

The memo points to Blackburn’s high number of individual contributions that have come from Tennessee, and includes pie and bar charts showing her far in the lead in individual contributions.

“We have always been prepared for Rose to spend a significant sum of his own money. We’ve gone up against self-funders before (Phil Bredesen) and know what is required to be successful,” Baker wrote.

74% money from Tennessee, more than 70% of donors out of state

The memo states that 74% of Blackburn’s contributions have come from Tennessee. That's true.

However, most of her individual donors — more than 70% on each of her disclosures thus far — live outside Tennessee.

Thousands of Blackburn donors have made repeated small-dollar donations, many under $5, in quick succession, and far higher-dollar contributions have come from in-state donors. For example, one Virginia donor made 72 donations between September and December 2025 in amounts ranging from $4 to $79 and totalling $2,009.25. A Texas donor contributed a total of $194.75 over 42 contributions last fall, most of which were $1 and $2. Blackburn received 6,470 contributions of $5 or less on her first disclosure.

Campaigns and political action committees in the United States have used strategies to increase the total number of contributions and give the impression of popular support.

Blackburn has significantly out-fundraised Rose in the last quarter. About 97% of Rose’s donors live in Tennessee.

While Tennessee donors made up about three-quarters of Blackburn’s total fundraising haul, only about 28% of her donors in the last quarter live in Tennessee, according to disclosures.

A boost from TikTok?

While Blackburn’s campaign has spent a fraction of Rose’s, she’s also benefited from millions of dollars in support from political action committees.

Among the PACs supporting Blackburn is Tennessee Freedom Fund, a Washington-based PAC that’s funded primarily by contributions from Jeff Yass, a prolific investor in TikTok.

Blackburn has criticized TikTok as a tool for Chinese espionage and propaganda, and has supported legislation to ban the app in the United States. Blackburn has made “cracking down on China” a central issue for her campaign, saying the state should do more to prevent Chinese ownership of Tennessee land.

Tennessee Freedom Fund is now sending attack mailers saying Rose puts "China First." The mailers misleadingly cite as evidence a news story written about another of the PAC's attack ads that claimed Chinese-owned firms bought Tennessee land "on Rose's watch."

USDA and Tennessee state databases show no record of Chinese-owned land in Tennessee. Former Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher — to whom any sale would have been reported — has denied the practice.

Early voting begins on July 17. The primary is Aug. 6.