Max Miller

WASHINGTON - U.S. Rep. Max Miller remains on the November ballot, despite a deadline to withdrawal, and he’s betting his political survival on the same playbook he says worked for Donald Trump a decade ago.

Monday, Aug. 10, is the legal deadline for Republicans to replace him on the ballot.

But Miller, a Bay Village Republican, may have sealed the deal on Saturday. He needed to drop out by then to trigger a procedure that would allow GOP leaders in the counties he represents the time to select a replacement by today’s deadline.

Miller’s ex-wife, Emily Moreno, has accused him of physical abuse throughout their marriage, including scalding her with hot water. Miller has denied every allegation and has not been criminally charged.

Although multiple Republicans including both of Ohio’s U.S. senators -- Bernie Moreno, who is his ex-wife’s father, and Jon Husted -- have urged him to drop out. President Donald Trump has questioned his electoral viability.

Miller steadfastly has said he’s sticking it out. He has cited Trump as inspiration for his resolve.

“In 2016, when President Donald J. Trump faced the most extreme allegations in the world that hit him day after day after day, and people in the media, very much like yourself and others, said that he would have no shot at winning, that he should not be the president of the United States, but guess what? He stayed in and he was resilient,” Miller told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Aug. 5.

He also has said he didn’t want to be seen as a quitter.

“My daughter is going to grow up one day, and she’s going to see all of this,” Miller told Tapper. “And she’s not going to see that her father caved to political and social media pressures for something that he never did.”

The House Ethics Committee is investigating whether Miller “may have engaged in domestic violence and abuse or illegal drug use” in violation of congressional rules. Miller said he sought the investigation himself, “to clear my name.”

Trump has stopped short of calling for Miller to withdraw. Asked about the race by reporters Thursday, Trump said he wouldn’t get involved.

“That’s a very sad situation,” Trump said. “And I know Max very well, but it’s very, very sad that a situation like that takes place.”

Miller is betting voters will look past all of it, the way they overlooked Trump’s baggage. Early polling suggests otherwise.

A survey of 615 likely general election voters conducted Aug. 5-6 by the Republican-leaning polling firm co/efficient found the Democrat running against Miller, Brook Park council member Brian Poindexter leading Miller 47% to 33%. That’s up from a five-point lead in the firm’s July 30 survey. The poll found Miller’s unfavorable rating had climbed 16 points to 57% over the same week, with awareness of his ex-wife’s domestic violence allegation rising from 53% to 86% among those surveyed. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.94 percentage points.

“The data does not support a viable path to victory for Max Miller,” its findings said. “Whatever Republican path exists in Ohio’s 7th does not run through him.”

Political analyst Kyle Kondik questions whether Miller will be able to follow Trump’s path of weathering controversy and winning, even though 2016 polls showed Trump losing badly to Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Kondik, who serves as managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, says this year’s electorate is likely to have a more Democrat tilt than usual, because of Trump’s underwater approval ratings. Given the close margins in Ohio’s U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, he says it’s unlikely there will be a big pro-Republican wave for Miller to ride.

Unless Miller leaves the race, Kondik has said his publication will change its rating of the contest from “Leans Republican” to “Toss Up.”

Kondik noted that a reason Republicans stuck with Trump in 2016 was that Clinton was a polarizing figure to the GOP base. Poindexter lacks that baggage. Condemnation from prominent Republicans, including Husted and Moreno, his former father-in-law, could also damage his viability.

The cloud could also scare away campaign donors, says Kondik. Miller says he plans to loan $1 million to his campaign. Miller’s net worth is between $3.3 million and $14.7 million, according to financial disclosure forms filed with the House of Representatives.

Miller’s 2022 campaign was largely self-funded. His latest Federal Election Commission report showed his campaign owes him $970,000 in loans. from that period. Miller told FEC that he had $1.38 million in his campaign treasury at the end of June, compared with $312,290 for Poindexter. But Kondik said Poindexter’s campaign could close the gap if Democrats think the district is in play and direct money to him.

Kondik notes that Miller could have a long political career ahead of him and wouldn’t want to end it by dropping out under a cloud of scandal.

“If you give up your seat now under these circumstances, you’re not coming back from this,” said Kondik, a native of Independence, which is in Miller’s congressional district.

Whether Trump’s political Teflon will rub off on his protege remains to be seen.