Michael Guest

We are not climate deniers in New Orleans. We are fully aware that when Bienville chose this site over 300 years ago, it was the least-bad option for an environmentally challenged but economically and strategically essential city. And since that time, we have defended our unique position, most recently with the $15 billion Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System (HSDRRS), which kept us bone-dry through Category 4 Hurricane Ida.

That is why it was frustrating to read about a new Nature Sustainability paper by Torbjörn Törnqvist et al., “Climate-driven depopulation and adaptation realities in America’s coastal ground zero.” Despite clear limitations, the study is presented as scientific proof that New Orleans is lost, and that we should abandon the city.

Most vexing is that the paper’s premature prophecy of doom can be self-fulfilling. The authors warn against "market-driven disorderly movement of people," but publicly declare New Orleans "terminal." When investors, insurers and young families read this, they will act accordingly. The study is now part of the very feedback loop it laments.

Christopher Ard of The Lens summarizes it well: “A modern-day redlining of an entire city.”

The study’s methodology has major gaps. Its central scenario – 10 to 23 feet of sea-level rise pushing the shoreline 60 miles inland – is extrapolated from conditions 125,000 years ago. And the paper provides no timeline for future flooding – it “cannot yet be provided.” Most glaringly, there is zero consideration of the people of this great city and nation adapting: Apparently, we will just sit here like a cow in a rising puddle.

The authors' case studies are unconvincing. Saying that the population of New Orleans should migrate, as Native Americans did around 1000 AD, seems to gloss over some important differences. So does their more contemporary example of a mere 6,000 people being moved out of a village in Sweden.

Academic ideas notwithstanding, abandonment is simply not realistic. New Orleans handles over 90% of America's grain exports. Over 60% of America's natural gas – now supporting Europe – is exported from southern Louisiana. On an economic basis alone, New Orleans is essential. And that is before one gets to the social and political questions of what happens when you tell people to abandon their generational home (for a hint, search “Katrina Green Dot Plan”).

Further, forced or even planned relocation has a terrible history. From the Trail of Tears in the 1800s to the recent relocation of the residents of Isle de Jean Charles (at a cost of almost $2 million per family), experience shows that displacement always hurts the most vulnerable, who lose everything from their livelihood to their sense of identity. The authors’ suggestion that New Orleans can achieve a “first mover advantage” by accelerating depopulation makes about as much sense as trying to get first to the firing line.

Here is the question the study's authors never answer: Why New Orleans? Miami sits on porous limestone that cannot be walled off from rising seas. New York's financial district faces catastrophic flood exposure. Do they suggest these cities should be deserted?

Much better than abandonment is the approach currently underway, adaptation – where New Orleans does indeed have a first mover advantage, and is in fact a global leader. We have many successful examples of adaptive infrastructure in Louisiana, including HSDRRS, the West Shore Lake Pontchartrain Hurricane Protection Project and the Lake Borgne Marsh Creation Project.

We are also working on adaptive policy. GNO, Inc. is leading a national coalition to champion a new form of “all-perils” insurance that would incentivize risk reduction and provide affordable protection from flood, tornado, fire and more, for homeowners across the nation.

Finally, there is robust research underway, including the $25 million Lower Mississippi River Comprehensive Management Study and the $22 million Mississippi River Delta Transition Initiative. These represent empirical science that will help inform practical decisions.

To be clear: None of this adaptation will happen easily. It is expensive and requires political will. But what is also clear is that the Delta has built land for 7,000 years, and restoration in tandem with acclimatization is achievable.

The authors of this study call place-attachment a “trap.” We call it love, and that is why we are going to continue to advocate for the ambition and investment that New Orleans deserves.