Mike Collins

Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff leads two potential Republican challengers, Representatives Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, in a new poll of Georgia’s 2026 Senate race released Tuesday.

The poll from NetChoice and Echelon Insights showed Ossoff with single-digit leads over both congressmen, though it did not ask about a matchup between Ossoff and Derek Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach backed by the state’s GOP governor, Brian Kemp. Georgia’s Senate race is expected to be among the most competitive of the 2026 midterm elections.

Newsweek also reached out to the Carter and Collins campaigns for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Georgia has become one of the closest battleground states in national politics, and Ossoff’s Senate seat is one of two Democrats are defending in states won by President Donald Trump in 2024. Republicans control the Senate by a 53-47 margin, and Georgia is viewed as a must-win state for Democrats if they want to reclaim a Senate majority.

Ossoff is viewed as a potential 2028 Democratic presidential contender, so the outcome of the race could have implications for that election as well.

Georgia Senate Race: What to Know About Latest Poll

The new poll from NetChoice and Echelon Insights, a Republican-aligned polling firm, gave Ossoff welcomed news as the primary inches closer. The poll showed Ossoff ahead of Collins by 7 points (51 percent to 44 percent) and Carter by 9 points (52 percent to 43 percent)

The survey questioned 377 likely Georgia voters from April 3 to April 9, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.5 percentage points.

Ossoff has built a lead because he is an “an incumbent who is supported by every Democrat in GA and some independents” in Georgia, Kerwin Swint, a political scientist at Kennesaw State University, told Newsweek on Tuesday.

“The Republicans have not unified around a consensus candidate the way that the White House wanted,” he said.

Ossoff’s fundraising will make it even harder for Republicans to unseat him, he said.

“Assuming that Representative Collins emerges as the nominee, his campaign will have to really push the case against Ossoff as a Biden-supporting proponent of open borders, high taxes, and anti-Trump hysteria,” he said.

In the primary, Collins “has led in most polls and appears to be the strongest general election candidate of the three,” according to Swint.

“There really aren't significant policy distinctions among the three—they are all pro-Trump, conservative Republicans who believe Jon Ossoff is too left-wing to represent Georgia voters,” he said.

An Ossoff campaign spokesperson responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.

"Georgia is a battleground state and Senator Ossoff is already facing millions of dollars of Republican spending against him. The Ossoff campaign will continue to build unstoppable momentum and work to earn every vote across the state of Georgia," the spokesperson said.

A Collins campaign spokesperson criticized the poll in a statement to Newsweek.

"It took a junk poll that only sampled 38% registered Republicans with a 6.5% margin of error to artificially bail out Jon Ossoff's support above 50% for the first time this election. In November, voters will choose a bipartisan workhorse who will put the people of Georgia first, not California and New York donors,” the statement said.

What Do Other Polls Say?

An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey conducted from February 28 through March 2 among 1,000 likely voters also showed Ossoff leading each major Republican contender tested.

That poll found Ossoff ahead of Dooley by 8 point (49 percent to 41 percent), leading Collins by 5 points (48 percent to 43 percent) and holding a 3-point edge over Carter (47 percent to 44 percent). The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, according to the polling memo.

A Quantus Insights poll conducted September 9–12, 2025, among 624 likely general election voters found Ossoff tied with Collins at 38 percent.

The same poll showed Ossoff leading Carter by 3 points (40 percent to 37 percent) and holding a 7-point advantage over Dooley (42 percent to 35 percent). The margin of error was plus or minus 4.3 percentage points

Election forecasters have also shifted toward Ossoff in recent months. Both Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report rate the Georgia Senate race as “leans Democratic,” according to their most recent classifications.

In a January 29 analysis, Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, wrote that Democrats “should be favored” to hold the seat in 2026 given their recent success in Georgia Senate races.

“This race is likely to be decided by only a few points either way—we just think Ossoff is likelier to end up on the winning side of that margin,” Kondik wrote in the same analysis.

Former Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican, predicted that Ossoff would win his reelection after Democrats overperformed in the special election to replace her earlier this year, in an interview with Politico in April.

“If you saw a big drop in my district for Republican votes, a drastic drop like that, that could very much affect the governor’s race, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and of course Jon Ossoff’s Senate seat that’s up for reelection in 2026,” she said. “That’s what I saw right away, and of course it matches what we’re seeing nationwide.”

She said polling numbers have “repeatedly showed” an Ossoff victory.”

Georgia Voting History

Georgia has shifted from a reliably Republican state into a true swing state over the last two decades, driven largely by rapid growth and demographic change in Atlanta and its surrounding suburbs.

Donald Trump carried Georgia by about 2.2 points in the 2024 presidential election, after Joe Biden won the state by roughly 0.2 points in 2020. Trump carried Georgia by about 5 points in 2016, while Mitt Romney won it by roughly 8 points in 2012 and John McCain by about 5 points in 2008.

Ossoff was first elected in January 2021 after winning a runoff election against Republican David Perdue by less than a percentage point, according to certified results.

When Is Georgia Election?

Republicans are set to choose their nominee in the May 19 primary, with a June 16 runoff scheduled if no candidate wins a majority, according to Georgia election law.