Mike Collins

Georgia Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff held a narrow lead over Republican Representative Mike Collins, who is hoping to flip the seat back to the GOP in the 2026 midterm elections, in a new poll this week.

A Collins spokesperson told Newsweek, “Jon Ossoff is below 50%, barely outside the margin of error, and nearly tied with Mike Collins despite having nearly a 12-month head start. Georgians want a U.S. Senator with a track record of delivering results for our state, not radical liberal activists.”

Republicans view Ossoff as being potentially vulnerable in the 2026 midterm elections. Although the national environment is expected by political experts to favor Democrats amid President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating, Georgia narrowly backed Trump in 2024 and has a historically conservative tilt despite becoming more competitive over the past decade.

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The new poll underscores the competitive nature of the Georgia Senate race, giving Ossoff a lead of only a few points—though other recent surveys have given him a more sizable advantage. Ossoff is also viewed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate for Democrats, though he has said he is uninterested in running.

Newsweek reached out to the Ossoff and Collins campaigns for comment via email.

Key Takeaways

Ossoff holds a narrow lead in new Georgia Senate polling, with the latest Wick survey showing him up roughly 4 points over GOP challenger Mike Collins in the 2026 battleground.

Independent and moderate voters are driving Ossoff’s advantage, with strong support among both groups.

Prediction markets currently favor Ossoff, giving him more than an 80 percent chance of reelection as of Thursday.

Georgia is a must-win seat for Democrats as the party faces a challenging Senate map.

Ossoff’s Lead in New Poll

Ossoff held a lead of about 4 points in the new Wick poll with 46.7 percent support compared to Collins’ 42.9 percent. His lead is bolstered by a strong showing among independent voters, with 52.1 percent planning to support Ossoff and 30.9 percent saying they will cast their ballots for Collins.

It surveyed 1,175 likely voters from June 27 to June 30, 2026. It had a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points.

Among self-described moderates, Ossoff’s support stood at 58.8 percent in the new poll.

The poll also found that 57.8 percent of respondents believe the economy is getting worse, and that Trump’s approval rating was -7.7 points.

Trump is expected to be a major factor in key Senate races this November. If his approval is poor, that would create a new political challenge for Republican candidates running in tight races. His approval rating nationwide has fallen amid concerns about the cost of living and inflation, two themes that have been central to Democratic campaigns.

Ossoff was first elected to the seat in 2021, defeating then-incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue in what was one of the closest races of the 2020 election cycle. Collins, meanwhile, has represented Georgia’s 10th District since 2023. He has aligned himself closely with Trump.

What Do Other Polls Show?

Other polling has given Ossoff a more comfortable lead over Collins.

A recent poll for Fox News put his support at 56 percent compared to Collins’ 43 percent—a 13-point margin in the competitive race. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research among 1,002 registered voters from June 23 to 27.

Earlier, an Echelon Insights poll found Ossoff with a 7-point lead, winning support from 51 percent of respondents compared to Collins’ 44 percent. It surveyed 407 likely voters from April 3 to 9.

Emerson College’s latest poll on the race, taken among 1,000 likely voters from February 28 to March 2, showed Ossoff with 48 percent to Collins’ 43 percent.

What Do Prediction Markets Show?

Ossoff is favored in prediction markets, holding an 85 percent chance of victory on Kalshi and an 87 percent chance on Polymarket as of Thursday afternoon. His chances on Kalshi have increased steadily throughout the election cycle.

Ossoff had an 82 percent chance of winning on June 9; on January 1, the start of the year, his chances stood at just under 75 percent, according to Kalshi.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Georgia Governor Race Is Nearly Tied in New Poll

The Georgia governor race between businessman Rick Jackson, a Republican, and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms appears to be closer, according to the Wick poll. It found 43.2 percent of respondents plan to back Jackson, compared to 42.7 percent for Bottoms.

Bottoms had the support of 43.3 percent of independents compared to 34.7 percent who supported Jackson, the poll found.

However, the Fox News poll found that Bottoms had a 5-point lead with 52 percent compared to Jackson’s 47 percent.

Georgia’s Shift From Red to Purple State

Georgia has shifted from a reliably Republican state into a true swing state over the last two decades, driven largely by rapid growth and demographic change in Atlanta and its surrounding suburbs.

In fact, Atlanta’s suburbs were among the only places in the country to get more Democratic from 2020 to 2024, despite major shifts rightward elsewhere across the nation—a sign of how quickly these areas are trending leftward.

Democrats hope those trends continue and accelerate in 2026 as they work to continue building progress in Georgia.

Trump carried Georgia by about 2.2 points in the 2024 presidential election, after Joe Biden won the state by roughly 0.2 points in 2020. Trump won Georgia by about 5 points in 2016, while Mitt Romney won it by roughly 8 points in 2012 and John McCain by about 5 points in 2008.

So far in 2026, Democrats have seen strong results in the Peach State.

Democrats overperformed in the Georgia special election to replace former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican who resigned from Congress earlier this year. Republican Clay Fuller won the April 7 special election by about 11 points in the deep-red district, a significant narrowing compared to Trump’s 37-point victory in the district in 2024.

Greene told Politico in April that Republicans should be concerned about those results.

“If you saw a big drop in my district for Republican votes, a drastic drop like that, that could very much affect the governor’s race, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and of course Jon Ossoff’s Senate seat that’s up for reelection in 2026,” she said. “That’s what I saw right away, and of course it matches what we’re seeing nationwide.”

Georgia Seat Is Must-Win for Democrats in Battle for Senate Control

Republicans currently have a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to flip control of the chamber.

Georgia is one of two Democratic-held seats in Trump-won states up for grabs in the 2026 midterms, along with Michigan. Those are Republicans’ top targets as GOP senators find themselves on the defensive in several races.

Democrats view North Carolina, which Trump won by 3 points, and Maine, which he lost by 7 points, as their top flip opportunities. In North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is facing off against former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley in what has become perhaps Democrats’ top pickup opportunity.

Although Maine is more of a blue state, its Senate race has been thrown into chaos after Democratic nominee Graham Platner said he would suspend his campaign over sexual assault allegations, which he has denied. The Maine Democratic Party is working on a process to select a new nominee to face off against Republican Senator Susan Collins.

But no other GOP-held seats are up for grabs in states Trump won or lost by single digits, so Democrats have to turn to more conservative states to compete for Senate control. They view seats in states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, all of which backed Trump by double digits in 2024, as their next best opportunities. Polls show close races in each of those states.

In prediction markets, Republicans are favored to hold the Senate, having a 57 percent chance on Kalshi and a 54 percent chance on Polymarket of retaining Senate control on Thursday.

What Happens Next?

With the contours set in Georgia, Ossoff and Collins will spend the coming months campaigning and working to win the support of Georgians. Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball view the race as Lean Democrat.