Mike Collins

Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff held a 9-point lead over Republican Representative Mike Collins, who is running to flip the Georgia seat back to the GOP in the 2026 midterm elections, in a new AARP poll published on Thursday.

Ossoff is viewed as perhaps the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the Senate in the 2026 midterm elections. Although political experts expect the national environment to favor Democrats amid President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating, Georgia voted for Trump in 2024—and it has a historically conservative lean despite becoming the nation’s newest battleground.

The new AARP poll provides the latest snapshot of where the battleground race stands less than four months until Election Day. Other recent surveys have similarly shown the Georgia Democrat with an advantage. Ossoff is also viewed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate for Democrats, though he has said he does not plan to run.

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An Ossoff campaign spokesperson told Newsweek on Thursday, “Georgia is a battleground state and Senator Ossoff is already facing millions of dollars of Republican spending against him. The Ossoff campaign will continue to build unstoppable momentum and work to earn every vote across the state of Georgia."

Newsweek also reached out to the Collins campaign for comment via email.

Ossoff’s Lead in New Poll

Ossoff received support from 52 percent of respondents in the latest AARP poll, compared to Collins’ 43 percent. Five percent said they were undecided about who they would support.

The poll found wide generational gaps in the race—Ossoff led by 33 points among voters between the ages of 18 and 34, 29 points among those between the ages of 35 and 49 and 5 points among those 50 to 64.

But Collins held a 24-point lead among those 65 or older, according to the poll.

Ossoff’s lead was also bolstered by independent voters, 55 percent of whom said they would vote for the Democratic incumbent compared to 35 percent saying they would cast their ballots for Collins.

The poll was conducted on behalf of AARP by Fabrizio Ward, a Republican pollster, and Impact Research, a Democratic pollster. It surveyed 1,060 likely voters across Georgia from July 13-16, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Interviews were conducted on cellphones, landlines and SMS-to-web.

Incumbency is a major factor helping Ossoff, Kerwin Swint, a political scientist at Kennesaw State University, told Newsweek on Thursday.

“And the Republicans in Georgia are not unified or enthusiastic about this race. The White House and Georgia Republicans never really came together to find a strong alternative to Ossoff. The Republican primary was pretty divisive. Ossoff has an enormous financial advantage which he will use to his benefit,” he said.

Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Lean Democratic.

What Do Other Polls Show?

Ossoff has built up a polling lead, with a recent Wick survey showing him up 4 points with 46.7 percent to Collins’ 42.9 percent. It surveyed 1,175 likely voters from June 27 to June 30, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

A poll for Fox News put Ossoff's support at 56 percent compared to Collins’ 43 percent—a 13-point margin in the competitive race. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research among 1,002 registered voters from June 23 to 27.

Earlier, an Echelon Insights poll found Ossoff with a 7-point lead, winning support from 51 percent of respondents compared to Collins’ 44 percent. It surveyed 407 likely voters from April 3 to 9.

Emerson College’s latest poll on the race, taken among 1,000 likely voters from February 28 to March 2, showed Ossoff with 48 percent to Collins’ 43 percent.

What Do Prediction Markets Show?

Ossoff is favored in prediction markets, holding an 87 percent chance of victory on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of Thursday afternoon. His chances on Kalshi have increased steadily throughout the election cycle.

On Kalshi, Ossoff had an 85 percent chance of winning as of July 2; an 81 percent chance as of June 2; and a 75 percent chance of winning as of the start of the year on January 1.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Keisha Lance Bottoms Leads Georgia Governor Race, Poll Finds

The AARP poll also found that former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms held a more narrow lead over businessman Rick Jackson in the governor race. Bottoms had support from 48 percent of respondents, compared to 46 percent backing Jackson. She led independents by 8 points, a tighter margin compared to Ossoff.

The Wick poll showed Jackson with a lead of less than a single point, 43.2 percent to 42.7 percent, while Fox News’ poll showed Bottoms up by 5 points, 52 percent to 47 percent.

Georgia’s Shift From Red to Purple State

Georgia was viewed as a reliably Republican state for much of the 2000s and 2010s but has become a true swing state over the last few election cycles. The shift was driven by rapid growth and demographic change in Atlanta and its surrounding suburbs.

In fact, Atlanta’s suburbs were among the only places in the country to get more Democratic from 2020 to 2024, despite major shifts rightward elsewhere across the nation—a sign of how quickly these areas are trending leftward.

Democrats hope those trends continue and accelerate in 2026 as they work to continue building progress in Georgia.

Trump carried Georgia by about 2.2 points in the 2024 presidential election, after Joe Biden won the state by roughly 0.2 points in 2020. Trump won Georgia by about 5 points in 2016, while Mitt Romney won it by roughly 8 points in 2012 and John McCain by about 5 points in 2008.

So far in 2026, Democrats have seen strong results in the Peach State.

Democrats overperformed in the Georgia special election to replace former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican who resigned from Congress earlier this year. Republican Clay Fuller won the April 7 special election by about 11 points in the deep-red district, a significant narrowing compared to Trump’s 37-point victory in the district in 2024.

Greene told Politico in April that Republicans should be concerned about those results.

“If you saw a big drop in my district for Republican votes, a drastic drop like that, that could very much affect the governor’s race, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and of course Jon Ossoff’s Senate seat that’s up for reelection in 2026,” she said. “That’s what I saw right away, and of course it matches what we’re seeing nationwide.”

The Bigger Picture: Georgia Is Must-Win for Democrats for Senate Control

Republicans currently have a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats must flip four seats to win control of the chamber but are facing a challenging map.

Along with Michigan, Georgia is one of two Democratic-held seats in Trump-won states up for grabs in November. Those are Republicans’ top targets as GOP senators find themselves on the defensive in several races.

Democrats view North Carolina, which Trump won by 3 points, and Maine, which he lost by 7 points, as their top flip opportunities. In North Carolina, former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is facing off against former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley in what has become perhaps Democrats’ top pickup opportunity.

In Maine, GOP Senator Susan Collins is likely to face off against former Senate President Troy Jackson, who is seen as holding an advantage heading into the nominating convention to select a new candidate after Graham Platner’s withdrawal from the race.

But no other GOP-held seats are up for grabs in states Trump won or lost by single digits, so Democrats have to turn to more conservative states to compete for Senate control. They view seats in states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, all of which backed Trump by double digits in 2024, as their next best opportunities. Polls show close races in each of those states.

Ossoff’s Presidential Chances in New Poll

Another new poll from Emerson College found that 13 percent of Democratic voters said they would vote for Ossoff in a 2028 presidential primary if he chooses to run. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg led the poll with 19 percent, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17 percent.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York also received 13 percent, along with Ossoff. Former Vice President Kamala Harris polled at 8 percent. It surveyed 574 Democratic voters from July 19-20 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Ossoff has said he is not planning to run for president, telling CNN, “I am not running for president in 2028, I have no interest in running for president in 2028.”

He said he is “laser-focused” on winning reelection in Georgia this year.