Mike Kennedy

Utahns will soon be free of political commercials as Election Day approaches in less than two weeks. The much-anticipated results will determine whether a blue wave, major polling mistakes or third-party upsets occur. Here is a primer of all the excitement.

Unaffiliated voters are growing at the expense of registered Republicans. Democrat registrations have increased slightly. Utahns’ antipathy toward Trump is reflected in polls and door-to-door campaigning. This will have a major effect on close races.

The lopsided nature of the current congressional map has determined ultimate outcomes. However, some politicos believe Blake Moore faces a tight race. Moore’s leadership position is normally an insurmountable advantage, but in this environment, it could be a liability. Any misperceptions that Moore is a Trump lackey are far from the truth. Close results will be analyzed for years.

Congressional incumbents Mike Kennedy and Celeste Maloy are heavily favored to win, but any close margins reflect a Trump effect. Because this is a good year for Democrats and CD1 is heavily gerrymandered, Ben McAdams will win comfortably. His momentum may influence outcomes in down-ballot races.

Emily Buss (Forward) vs. Brooks Benson (R) — Republican Dan Thatcher won this seat in the last election, but switched to the Utah Forward Party. He then resigned, and this third-party selected Emily Buss to replace him. In a bold strategy, the Democratic Party withdrew its candidate to support Buss. This experiment did not work in the 2022 U.S. Senate race. (Remember when Democrats dumped one of their own to support Independent Evan McMullin against Mike Lee?)

Jill Koford (R) vs. Christina Hernandez (D) — Jill Koford is a quasi-incumbent, currently holding a House seat within this Senate district. Significant amounts of outside money are being spent to oppose Koford. The presumed Democratic wave will factor into this purple-ish district. Well-known former Rep. Rosemary Lesser, seeking to reclaim her House seat in the district’s heart, may further drive Democratic turnout.

Kirk Cullimore (R) vs. Shana Anderson (D) — As the Senate majority leader, Kirk Cullimore is a strong contender for Senate president. The liberal group Elevate Utah, strong critics of President Stuart Adams, has turned its sights on Cullimore to claim another political scalp.

Jason Thompson (R) vs. Patrick Belmont (Unaffiliated) — Many logically presume Cache County is extremely Republican, but the University effect exists. This helps a candidate outside the mainstream parties to pose a significant threat, even against a well-liked incumbent. Republican leadership has invested heavily in this race. A close contest will signal that Utahns might be ready for a shake-up of the two-party system.

Rosemary Lesser (D) vs. Jim Alvey (R) — Rosemary Lesser seeks to reclaim the House seat she lost to Jill Koford in the 2024 Trump wave. It took Koford two attempts and several hundreds of thousands of dollars to oust Lesser. Attempting to keep this seat red, Republican leadership has made substantial donations to support Jim Alvey. Lesser’s military record and reputation as a physician who delivered countless babies in the area make her name ID and favorability an appealing combination.

Matt MacPherson (R) vs. Michael Finch (D) — This is a true swing district where Biden won in 2020 and Trump in 2024. Democrat groups have been carpet-bombing this district with mailers and other efforts opposing Matt MacPherson. This is a high-priority race for Democrats to flip.

Anthony Loubet (R) vs. Liz Oates (D) — Another purple-ish district where both candidates are nearly tied in money raised and money spent. It will come down to who has a better ground game with a message that appeals to their voters.

Jim Dunnigan (R) vs. Blake Townsend (D) — Months after Jim Dunnigan’s original Democrat opponent dropped out, the party made a late-summer replacement with Townsend. This unusual maneuver was made possible by a 2024 law that preserved a specific Republican seat after a late-cycle resignation.

Steve Eliason (R) vs. Ofa Matagi (D) — Ofa Matagi unsuccessfully ran for the House in 2020. Steve Eliason has out-raised his opponent 7:1, but the last time Ben McAdams was on the ballot, he only won by 77 votes. With a surge in anti-Trump sentiment and Democratic enthusiasm in this congressional district, Matagi has an advantage. But battle-hardened Eliason has weathered similar challenges, so this is another nail-biter.

Luke Searle (R) vs. Celeste Johnson (D) — This is historically a safe Republican seat. Wasatch County Commissioner Luke Searle faces former Midway Mayor Celeste Johnson. Johnson has a slight fundraising lead, while outside groups are investing heavily through independent expenditures to support her. However, Republican voter registration in the district dwarfs Democrats.

Clint Okerlund (R) vs. Iva Williams (D) — Kamala Harris won this district in 2024, while Clint Okerlund carried it by nine points. Iva Williams outraised and outspent Okerlund, making this a race to watch.

Chris McConnehey (R) vs. Sergio Sotelo (Unaffiliated) — This historically Republican-held seat is currently open. Chris McConnehey is a former West Jordan City Councilman with high name ID and a lead in fundraising. Unions are backing Sergio Sotelo. This is another Republican vs. Unaffiliated matchup (one of three this cycle). McConnehey is likely to win, but political strategists will watch the margin of victory.