Mike Rogers

Two of the three Democratic candidates running for U.S. Senate in Michigan are running neck-and-neck with Republican Mike Rogers, according to a new Detroit Regional Chamber of Commerce Poll.

The third Democrat, former public health official Abdul El-Sayed, trails the former congressman in a head-to-head matchup by more than five percentage points, according to the statewide phone survey of 600 likely voters.

Both Congresswoman Haley Stevens and state Senator Mallory McMorrow polled slightly behind Rogers but within the margin of error. Both were essentially tied with him among respondents who said they definitely planned to vote.

Which three campaigns claimed as a sort of victory.

“After 32 years of Democrat failures in our state, Michiganders are making clear that if they want the outcomes to change, our representation has to,” Rogers campaign spokeswoman Alyssa Brouillet said in a statement. “Mike Rogers will fix everything the Democrats broke.”

Steven’s spokesman Joetta Appiah said in a statement that, “Poll after poll shows that Haley Stevens is the strongest Democrat to go up against Mike Rogers,” noting that Stevens leads Rogers by 0.2% among definite voters, “has the highest vote share of any Democrat, and performs best of any Democrat with Black voters.”

McMorrow’s campaign noted that she had gained ground on Stevens over the past year.

“This race is about nominating the best candidate to win both the primary and the general,” McMorrow campaign spokesperson Jackson Boaz said in a statement. “What’s clear is Abdul El-Sayed is consistently the weakest candidate against Mike Rogers, Stevens has lost ground, and the more voters get to know Mallory, the better she does.”

But Richard Czuba, whose firm, Glengariff Group, conducted the poll, said Rogers has a more difficult path to victory than the matchup numbers might indicate.

The poll found significant numbers of undecided voters in every likely matchup, as much as 16.5% percent of respondents.

“When you look at those undecided voters, 70% of them disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing,” Czuba said. “If this is a referendum on Donald Trump, where do those undecided voters go? And that creates a very difficult path for Mike Rogers.”

“Unless it’s Abdul El-Sayed,” he added, “in a much more competitive race.”

El-Sayed’s campaign, in response, touted the progressive candidate’s ability to mobilize young voters and the contrast he presents with Rogers.

“Abdul is a doctor who has taken on powerful interests and won,” campaign spokesperson Sophie Pollock said in a statement. “Rogers is a career politician backed by the same corporations that have driven up utility and healthcare costs for Michigan families. Healthcare is top of mind for Michigan voters and Abdul is the candidate who can deliver real results.”

Michigan’s statewide primary takes place on Tuesday, Aug. 4.