Monica De La Cruz

Democrats are seeing fresh signs of life in a South Texas congressional seat that looked, on paper, like one of the harder places for the party to win back in 2026.

Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz in a new poll of Texas’ 15th Congressional District, according to a new House Majority PAC-sponsored poll, conducted by Normington Petts and Associates, and shared with Newsweek on August 4.

President Donald Trump carried the redrawn district by nearly 18 points in 2024, making any Democratic lead there a warning sign for Republicans.

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Voters in TX-15 will decide on November 3 whether De La Cruz keeps a Republican-held South Texas seat or whether Pulido helps Democrats expand their House map.

Newsweek reached out to both campaigns via email for comment outside of regular working hours on Tuesday.

Key Points

A new poll sponsored by Democratic campaign group House Majority PAC found Pulido leading incumbent De La Cruz by 51 percent to 45 percent.

It follows a previous WelcomePAC survey which found Pulido ahead 48 percent to 46 percent.

At the time of writing, prediction market Kalshi’s TX-15 market showed Pulido at 67 percent and De La Cruz at 41 percent.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican on July 30, writing that a district Trump won by nearly 20 points “increasingly looks like a very real Democratic target.”

Why It Matters

Texas' 15th Congressional District has become a test of whether Republicans’ recent gains with Latino voters in South Texas can hold in a midterm environment that may be less favorable to the GOP. The seat is also part of a broader Texas battlefield that Democrats hope could help them flip the House and build momentum in the state’s high-profile Senate race.

A Democratic Lead in a Trump District

A new House Majority PAC-sponsored poll gave Pulido 51 percent support to De La Cruz’s 45 percent, with a generic Democrat ahead of a generic Republican by 48 percent to 46 percent.

It was conducted by Normington Petts and Associates from July 23-28, 2026, among 500 likely voters in Texas’ 15th Congressional District, with a plus or minus 4.4 percent margin of error, a House Majority PAC spokesman told Newsweek.

Pulido’s lead over De La Cruz in Texas’ 15th Congressional District, a seat Trump carried by nearly 18 points in 2024 under its redrawn lines, matters because this is exactly the kind of district Republicans hoped would remain insulated from a Democratic midterm rebound.

TX-15 runs through heavily Latino South Texas, a region where Republicans made striking gains during the Trump era and where Democrats have spent years debating whether their old coalition has simply weakened or whether it can be rebuilt candidate by candidate.

The Earlier Poll Also Had Pulido Ahead

The new numbers are not arriving in a vacuum.

A previous survey conducted by Adam Rapfogel at Applecart for WelcomePAC found Pulido leading De La Cruz 48 percent to 46 percent. That survey included 802 likely voters in TX-15, was conducted from May 18 to May 25, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

The WelcomePAC poll also suggested Pulido had a candidate-specific advantage.

According to the release, Pulido, a Latin Grammy Award-winning musician, had 73 percent name identification and a net favorability rating of plus eight. It said he overperformed the generic Democratic ballot by five points and that only 36 percent of voters said De La Cruz deserved reelection, including 8 percent of self-identified independents.

WelcomePAC is invested in centrist Democratic politics, and House Majority PAC is a political organization focused exclusively on electing Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives. Internal and allied polls can still be useful, especially when they are released with methodology, but they should be read as one clue rather than a final verdict.

Still, two separate Democratic-linked surveys showing Pulido competitive or ahead are enough to explain why the race is drawing more national attention.

Prediction Markets Have Moved Toward Pulido

Prediction markets are also pointing toward a more competitive contest.

At the time of writing, Kalshi’s TX-15 market listed Pulido at 67 percent and De La Cruz at 41 percent in the market for the district’s 2026 House winner. The page listed $90,721 in trading volume and showed the race resolving by winning party.

On Polymarket, Pulido stood at 67 percent and De La Cruz at 30 percent.

Prediction markets can be influenced by trading volume, news cycles and motivated participants. But in campaigns, they increasingly function as another measure of perceived momentum, much like race ratings and fundraising reports.

When a market moves in the same direction as polling and forecaster downgrades, it adds to the sense that the race is no longer safely in the Republican column.

Forecasters Are Moving, But Not All The Way

Major forecasters have not universally declared Pulido the favorite.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved TX-15 on July 30 from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, a meaningful shift toward Democrats but still a rating that gives De La Cruz an edge. In its explanation, Sabato’s Crystal Ball said it “may seem crazy” to describe a district Trump won by nearly 20 points as a real Democratic target, but added that TX-15 “appears to be the case” as De La Cruz faces Pulido.

The analysis pointed to possible Democratic “snapback” among Texas Latino voters and noted Pulido’s name identification from outside politics. It also laid out the Republican case, concluding that while there is a case for calling the race a Toss-up, Leans Republican was the more reasonable rating.

That distinction is important. Being competitive in a red-leaning district is not the same as being on course to win it. The race may have moved toward Democrats, but the district’s partisan baseline still gives Republicans room to recover.

How The District Got Here

TX-15 has been shaped by redistricting, demographic change and the Trump-era realignment of parts of South Texas.

De La Cruz first won the district in 2022, becoming the first Republican to represent it since it was created in 1901. She defeated Democrat Michelle Vallejo again in 2024, winning 57.1 percent to 42.9 percent.

The current version of the race is being fought on new lines.

Texas adopted a new U.S. House district map in 2025, altering the boundaries of TX-15 from those used in 2024. Under The Downballot's estimate of the new map, Trump would have defeated Harris 58.5 percent to 40.7 percent in the district in 2024.

That creates a puzzle for both parties. If presidential partisanship holds, De La Cruz should be difficult to beat.

If Latino voters swing back toward Democrats, if midterm turnout favors the opposition party, or if Pulido can run ahead of the Democratic brand, the district becomes far more complicated.

Jon Taylor, a University of Texas at San Antonio professor, told The Texas Observer that “Eighty percent of that district [De La Cruz] hasn’t represented in the last [two] election cycles,” adding: “They really don’t know her...this is a decidedly toss-up race.”

Why Pulido Is Not a Generic Democrat

Pulido is not a standard congressional challenger. He is a Tejano musician and small business owner from Edinburg, Texas. He won the Democratic primary on March 3, 2026, defeating Ada Cuellar 67.5 percent to 32.5 percent.

His campaign message leans heavily on distance from national party labels. In a campaign ad, Pulido said: “I’m not Team Red or Team Blue. South Texas, I’m Team You.” He also said costs are “through the roof and crushing families and small businesses down here.”

That kind of positioning explains why Democratic groups see TX-15 as more than a simple partisan test. A Democrat with celebrity, local roots and a moderate message may be better placed to reach voters who backed Trump but remain open to a different kind of House candidate.

After the March primary, strategists saw the race as one that would require a Democrat with strong name identification and appeal to conservative Latinos, CBS News reported. Pulido’s bid was boosted by close to $1 million in outside spending from the political arm of Blue Dog Action, a moderate operation, according to CBS.

De La Cruz Still Has the Incumbency Advantage

De La Cruz also has obvious strengths. She is the incumbent, has already won the district twice, and has a fundraising edge.

As of June 30, 2026, De La Cruz had raised $5.27 million compared with Pulido’s $2.96 million, according to Ballotpedia.

Her campaign website describes her as an “effective national leader” and says she secured passage of “five key pieces of legislation,” including a bill targeting fentanyl trafficking. It also says she supports border security, seniors’ benefits and South Texas agriculture.

What Happens Next

Republicans will likely argue that the district’s 2024 presidential result remains the clearest guide to November. They can also frame Pulido as insufficiently tested, too aligned with national Democrats, or vulnerable to scrutiny over past controversies.

For Democrats, the challenge is different. They need to prove that Pulido’s appeal is durable beyond early polling, that Latino movement away from Republicans is real, and that a midterm electorate will look different enough from the 2024 presidential electorate to make a Republican district genuinely winnable.