Nancy Mace

A Trafalgar Group poll conducted earlier this month reveals that Representative Nancy Mace is trailing several rivals in South Carolina’s crowded Republican gubernatorial primary. The shift comes just days after President Donald Trump endorsed Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette, potentially altering the dynamics of the race ahead of Tuesday's primary.

Trump’s endorsement carries significant weight among South Carolina’s GOP electorate, frequently serving as a decisive factor in consolidating support within a fragmented field.

Current Polling and Campaign Reactions

The survey, which was conducted between June 2-4, highlights a highly competitive race with no single candidate holding a dominant lead. According to the data:

Read More on News

Mace's campaign, reached by Newsweek on Friday, acknowledged the survey, which was led by Republican pollster Robert Cahaly.

"This is what we call a suppression poll,” a Mace campaign spokesperson said. “Grassroots are dropping their support of Pam like a hot potato. We think Cahaly just slams his head on a keyboard and puts numbers into a tweet."

Mace, who has represented South Carolina's 1st congressional district since 2021, launched her gubernatorial bid last August, opting to forgo reelection to Congress. While her high-profile entry initially positioned her as a frontrunner, the race has since tightened into a multi-candidate battle. Under South Carolina election law, if no candidate reaches the 50 percent threshold required to win outright, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election.

What Prediction Markets Say

According to Kalshi, Mace has under a 4 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee for governor, compared to 68 percent for Evette and 27 percent for Wilson.

On Polymarket, Mace had a 45 percent chance in December but has fallen to under 5 percent currently, whereas Evette went from 30 percent the day before Trump’s endorsement to 68 percent today, followed by Wilson at 24 percent.

The Epstein Files and the Fracture With Trump

The shifting dynamics mark a sharp departure from 2024, when Mace and Trump enjoyed a mutually supportive political relationship. Mace backed Trump’s presidential bid, and Trump endorsed her congressional reelection, praising her as a "strong conservative voice" who fought for border security, veterans, and the Second Amendment.

However, the relationship strained over Mace’s aggressive push for the government to release classified documents related to deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Mace, who has publicly disclosed being a survivor of sexual assault as a teenager, has been highly critical of how the Justice Department—including during the Trump administration—handled the Epstein files.

While some conservative allies urged the total release of the materials, the issue remained politically sensitive among certain Republican strategists. Mace’s public demands for absolute transparency created a distinct contrast between her and other primary contenders who avoided the topic.

Following Trump’s endorsement of Evette, Mace addressed the fallout last Friday on X, writing: "I know I put the likelihood of an endorsement on the line when I demanded transparency on the Epstein files. I demanded it because you deserved the truth - ALL OF IT - and as a survivor of a corrupt and broken court system, I will always pursue justice for those who deserve it. If sacrificing my values is the price of an endorsement, I will never pay it. South Carolina deserves a Governor who answers to her people, not to the establishment, and not to anyone who believes accountability is negotiable.”

Broader Congressional Fallout

Mace is not the only lawmaker to face political repercussions over the issue. Republican Representative Thomas Massie—who spearheaded a bipartisan procedural effort with Democrat Representative Ro Khanna to force a vote on the document release—praised Mace, alongside Republican Representative Lauren Boebert and former GOP Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, for their advocacy. Massie noted that while most Republicans ultimately voted to release the files, only Mace, Boebert, and Greene were willing to sign his initial discharge petition, noting they “paid an enormous” price for doing so.

The political blowback for challenging the party line on this and related issues has been substantial:

Massie lost his primary election last month to Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein.

Greene chose not to seek reelection, citing her fracture with Trump over the Epstein files.

Boebert faces an explicit threat of a Trump-backed primary challenge after she campaigned on behalf of Massie.

What Lies Ahead

South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial primary is scheduled for June 9. If no candidate secures more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff later in June.