Nancy Mace

The Republican primary to replace the late Senator Lindsey Graham in South Carolina’s Senate race is tight as several candidates, including Representatives Ralph Norman and Nancy Mace, weigh potential bids, according to a new poll.

Graham’s death over the weekend upended the South Carolina Senate race. He was running for reelection in November and viewed as the front-runner in the reliably Republican state. But the seat is now open, and several well-known South Carolina Republicans have been floated as potential candidates. The Republican Party must hold a quick primary to select a new nominee to challenge Democrat Annie Andrews in November.

While the contours of the race are still being drawn, the new Emerson College poll released Thursday suggests there is no clear leader, but prospective candidates with higher name recognition from prior statewide runs may have a slight advantage.

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The political landscape in South Carolina is “stunned” following Graham’s death, Justin Vaughn, a professor of political science at Coastal Carolina University, told Newsweek on Thursday.

“Elected officials and other leaders who may have had an eye on that or other statewide positions for the future now suddenly face a scramble, but a highly compressed election will tend to favor those with strong name ID, resources, and—probably more than anything—the support of President Trump,” he said.

Norman, Lynch Lead South Carolina Senate Poll

The poll showed that Norman has the highest support among South Carolina Republican voters, with 16 percent saying they would cast their ballots for him in the special primary. Mark Lynch, who has already confirmed he is running after an unsuccessful primary challenge to Graham earlier this year, followed at 13 percent.

Mace and Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette both received 10 percent support in the poll.

Representative Russell Fry polled at 9 percent, while Governor Henry McMaster received 8 percent of the vote. Senator Darline Graham, the sister of Lindsey Graham, who was appointed to serve the remainder of his term, received 6 percent support. Support for former Representative Mark Sanford stood at 5 percent.

An additional 5 percent said they would vote for someone else, while 18 percent were still undecided. Those voters could prove to be critical given the tight margins of this poll.

It surveyed 500 likely voters from July 14-15, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. It's the first poll of potential candidates following Graham's death.

Vaughn said that the most likely contenders are those who “just finished close but unsuccessful GOP primaries, particularly the race for the governor.”

Who Is Running in South Carolina Republican Primary?

So far, only Lynch, a Greenville-area businessman, has confirmed he is running in the new GOP primary, telling The New York Times he would commit an additional $5 million to his campaign to “finish the race we started.” In the primary, he received just under 29 percent support compared to Graham’s 57 percent.

Lynch told Newsweek on Thursday, “I am proud to continue the fight we started in February of 2025, and I look forward to being President Trump’s greatest ally in the United States Senate while I fight for South Carolina.”

Norman said on Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria that he is “interested in the job” but has not made a formal announcement.

Mace is also viewed as a potential candidate who has not said for sure she plans to run. Both Mace and Norman lost in the gubernatorial primary in June. Mace was viewed as a rising star after flipping a Charleston-area seat in 2020 but placed fifth in the June primary.

Evette, who also lost in the gubernatorial primary, told CBS News it was “disheartening” that the conversation in South Carolina became political so soon after Graham’s death, adding that there will “be a time for that.” She has not said whether she intends to seek the nomination.

Notably, she was the first candidate in the primary to receive President Donald Trump's endorsement and advanced to a runoff against nominee Alan Wilson, the state attorney general. Trump later issued a dual endorsement with Wilson.

Darline Graham has not said if she plans to seek a full term.

In addition to those named in the poll, former Representative Trey Gowdy has been named a potential candidate.

Some Republicans have taken themselves out of consideration.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there is “no chance” he will run in an interview with the Washington Examiner. A spokesperson for former Governor Nikki Haley told Bloomberg that she has “no plans to run for office at this time.”

Representative William Timmons said he does not plan to run.

"Unless the South Carolina General Assembly changes state law, any current member of Congress already on the ballot for reelection who is elected to replace Senator Graham would leave their House seat vacant on January 3, 2027. I have told Speaker [Mike] Johnson that I will not do anything that increases the number of votes he must secure to be reelected Speaker in January," Timmons wrote on X.

Trump has not said whom he would support in the special primary. Vaughn said that Fry has a close relationship with the president and would be well-positioned if he receives Trump's support.

“Other big names might shake things up significantly, though; for example, Governor Henry McMaster, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, or even former U.S. Representative Trey Gowdy would all command significant attention,” Vaughn said. “And Darline Graham, who is currently sitting in her brother’s former seat, would have important advantages if she decided to pursue keeping it longer.”

South Carolina Special Election: What To Know

Under South Carolina law, Senate vacancies are filled through a special election, with the governor making an interim appointment until voters elect a successor.

The South Carolina Election Commission announced that the special election will be on August 11, with early voting August 5-7. The deadline to apply for an absentee ballot is July 31. The commission publishes a list of early-voting locations in each county.

If necessary, a runoff would be on August 25, with early voting August 19-21, according to the commission. The voting threshold to avoid a runoff is 50 percent plus one vote.

Candidate filing will run from July 21-28.

Will South Carolina Senate Race Be Competitive?

South Carolina is a reliably Republican state, and both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball viewed the race as being safe or solid for Graham. The state is unlikely to become competitive this year, Vaughn said.

“South Carolina is a strong Republican state—President Trump carried the state easily in 2024—and despite the scramble Senator Graham’s passing caused in the GOP, it is still a safe Republican seat,” he said.

A spokesperson for the Andrews campaign previously told Newsweek that open seats are typically more competitive.

Only a handful of Democratic internal polls had been released for the Graham-Andrews matchup, but they showed a potentially close race. The most recent survey, an Impact Research poll conducted among 700 likely voters June 17-22, showed Graham leading 48 percent to 45 percent.

According to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, Republicans retained their advantage, with an 85 percent chance on Kalshi and an 83 percent chance on Polymarket of holding onto the Senate seat in November, as of Thursday morning.

At the presidential level, South Carolina last voted for a Democratic candidate in 1976 and has given double-digit victories to Republicans in recent cycles. Trump won by 18 points in 2024, nearly 12 points in 2020 and 14 points in 2016. The state backed Mitt Romney by 10 points in 2012 and John McCain in 2008.