Nancy Pelosi

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi accused President Donald Trump of dragging the United States back into a "dangerous and illegal" war with Iran following renewed military action in the region. Pelosi stated that Trump ignored Congress after lawmakers voted to halt the conflict, arguing that the renewed military action endangers U.S. service members, pushes gasoline prices higher, and forces American families to bear the cost of an "unnecessary war of choice." Despite the escalation, U.S. officials said Washington remains committed to talks with Iran and plans to continue technical negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict.

Diplomatic Stance and Ceasefire Status

Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran "over" during the NATO summit in Ankara and warned he may abandon diplomacy, saying, "let's just finish the job." A U.S. official clarified that while Trump declared the ceasefire over following Iran's attacks on commercial vessels, the administration is keeping the door open for dialogue. The official described Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz as "acts of terrorism" and noted that the 60-day ceasefire signed last month was performance-based. Reports indicate that diplomatic contacts are continuing even as fire between the two nations has intensified.

Geopolitical Tensions and Strategic Claims

The latest escalation involved attacks on three commercial vessels, prompting U.S. forces to carry out renewed strikes against Iranian targets. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that subsequent strikes targeted Iran were in response to "unjustified aggression" against commercial shipping and civilian crews. CENTCOM rejected Iran's assertion of control over the Strait of Hormuz, stating that U.S. forces had facilitated the transit of more than 800 commercial vessels and 380 million barrels of crude oil through the waterway since early May. The Treasury Department also withdrew a waiver that had allowed Iranian oil sales.

Congressional Response and Funding

Efforts to require congressional approval for continued U.S. military involvement fell short after the Senate in June declined to rebuke the administration in a 50-47-1 vote. The White House has sought $87.6 billion in supplemental spending, including $21 billion for the Defense Department. Some lawmakers argue that this request would force taxpayers to finance a broader military campaign.

Market Impact and Oil Prices

Following the initial surge in energy prices, oil markets showed signs of stabilization as investors watched for de-escalation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $72.04, while Brent crude was at $76.24. The United States Oil Fund (USO) traded at $108.65, down 0.33% in pre-market trading. The earlier geopolitical instability had pushed WTI up 7.4% to around $75.69 a barrel and Brent above $80, contributing to a decline in U.S. stocks where the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1%.

Index / Instrument Level Change Brent Crude $76.24 Little Changed WTI Crude Oil $72.04 Little Changed United States Oil Fund (USO) $108.65 -0.33%

Morgan Stanley said Thursday that artificial intelligence (AI) could keep U.S. interest rates above post-2008 levels if the technology boosts productivity without triggering widespread job losses. The bank’s outlook suggests that a productivity boom driven by AI would support faster output and economic growth, potentially sustaining a higher interest rate environment than the period following the 2008 financial crisis.

In the bank’s podcast ‘Thoughts on the Market’, its Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen said AI’s impact on financial markets will ultimately depend on whether the technology is labor-augmenting or replaces workers. Gapen said if AI follows the path of the internet and the broader digital revolution by boosting productivity while keeping the economy near full employment, it would benefit equity and credit markets. “We think ultimately it’ll benefit markets greatly, similar to what we saw from the mid-90s to the early 2000s,” Gapen added.

Morgan Stanley’s baseline assumes AI spreads through the economy roughly twice as fast as the internet, though it would still take about a decade or more to fully reshape production. The firm’s baseline also does not assume widespread labor market disruption, with Gapen saying AI is expected to diffuse gradually enough for the U.S. economy to rebalance workers without large-scale layoffs.

The Federal Reserve, in its June meeting, said that AI-related demand was contributing to inflationary pressures and any productivity gains from the technology would likely take time to materialize. The International Monetary Fund similarly said AI was supporting the global economy, although its baseline forecasts do not yet assume productivity gains from the technology.

Japan Faces a Different AI Challenge

Robert Feldman, Senior Advisor at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities, said Japan faces a different challenge, with AI viewed primarily as a way to ease persistent labor shortages rather than replace workers. He said the country’s long-term success will depend on improving labor-market flexibility and expanding worker reskilling to capture productivity gains from AI.

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