Nancy Pelosi

Prediction markets show limited optimism that a ban on congressional stock trading will pass this year, even as public scrutiny intensifies and lawmakers increase their trading activity.

Not Much Action Expected This Year?

A Kalshi bet gives just 6.7% odds that members of Congress will be banned from trading individual stocks before 2027.

Note that a congressional stock trading ban may still qualify for a “Yes” if lawmakers are permitted to use blind trusts or invest in diversified assets like exchange-traded funds or mutual funds. The restriction only applies to individual stock trading.

Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.

A similar bet on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket showed a 12% chance of a ban this year, down from 21% at the beginning of the year.

An ‘Honest’ Attempt

Although a Senate committee advanced the bill, it has not received a full floor vote in either the Senate or the House of Representatives

Pelosi At The Centre Of It All

This jab targeted Paul Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi’s husband, and his prominent stock trades, which have substantially boosted the couple’s net worth over the years.

The 2012 STOCK Act requires members to disclose stock trades within 45 days, but members of both political parties have violated this rule.

Pelosi has announced that she will be retiring at the end of her current term in January 2027, and therefore will not seek re-election.

Photo Courtesy: Alexandros Michailidis on Shutterstock.com