Ralph Norman

Interim Senator Darline Graham and Representative Ralph Norman have emerged as the frontrunners in South Carolina’s compressed Republican Senate primary, according to a survey released less than three weeks before voters head to the polls.

The poll, which was conducted on July 21, found Graham supported by 20.8 percent of likely Republican primary voters, followed by Norman at 16.9 percent. With no candidate approaching a majority, the survey suggests the August 11 special primary is likely headed to an August 25 runoff.

The survey offers an early look at the race following President Donald Trump’s July 17 endorsement of Graham and her subsequent decision to seek a full Senate term.

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Newsweek reached out to Graham's and Norman's campaigns on Saturday.

A Compressed Race Following Lindsey Graham's Passing

The special election was triggered by the July 11 death of longtime GOP Senator and close Trump ally Lindsey Graham. Governor Henry McMaster subsequently appointed his sister to serve the remainder of the term, setting off a rapid campaign cycle for South Carolina’s first open Senate seat in decades.

When appointed, Graham was initially viewed by many Republicans as a caretaker. That dynamic shifted when Trump issued a "Complete and Total Endorsement," prompting Graham to enter the race to carry on her brother's political legacy.

Despite leading the poll, Graham's position remains fluid. The survey found that 17.8 percent of likely primary voters had never heard of her, while 31.3 percent had yet to form an opinion.

Conducted by Resonance Media Services—led by longtime South Carolina Republican political strategist Rick Quinn—the poll surveyed 600 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Because Graham's 3.9-point lead falls within that margin, analysts caution that a clear leader has yet to establish dominance.

Norman Positions for a Runoff

While trailing in the initial standings, Norman occupies a strong strategic position should the race advance to a runoff.

The poll indicates Norman posted some of the strongest favorability numbers in the field and performed well as a secondary choice for voters. A vocal Trump ally who finished third in the state's recent gubernatorial primary, Norman has pressed forward despite the president's endorsement of Graham.

Support among the remainder of the field remains fractured. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette registered at 9.6 percent, Representative Russell Fry and businessman Mark Lynch each drew 7.2 percent, former Governor Mark Sanford polled at 7.1 percent, Representative Nancy Mace garnered 2.8 percent and Walterboro attorney Duke Buckner received 0.9 percent. Sanford, who challenged Trump for the Republican presidential nomination in 2020 and has been one of his most prominent South Carolina critics, announced his Senate bid after the poll was conducted.

Split Conservative Endorsements

The contest has drawn national alignment from prominent figures within the party. Graham has secured backing from Senator Tom Cotton, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune has praised her candidacy without issuing a formal endorsement.

Conversely, Norman has consolidated support from high-profile conservatives including Senators Rick Scott and Mike Lee, highlighting a visible division among influential party leaders.

General Election Outlook

While Republicans navigate the crowded primary, Democrat Annie Andrews—who secured her nomination on June 9—is positioned for the November general election. Andrews has argued that a protracted, expensive GOP primary could benefit Democrats.

Political scientist Justin Vaughn of Coastal Carolina University recently told Newsweek that despite the Republican scramble, South Carolina remains a "strong Republican state" and the seat is still considered a safe GOP hold.

Trump carried the state by 18 points in 2024, and Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate seat in South Carolina since 1998.

As the August 11 primary approaches, the race remains one of the most closely watched legislative contests in the nation, defined by a volatile electorate and a compressed timeline.