Ralph Norman

The results from yesterday’s special GOP Senate primary in South Carolina probably came as a relief to the beleaguered Donald Trump. His endorsed candidate, the late Lindsey Graham’s sister, Darline (already serving the rest of her brother’s current term as an interim senator), finished first and will advance to an August 25 runoff. The candidate he probably thought a lot about backing, Congressman Russell Fry, finished a strong third, which means Trump won’t face the temptation to hedge his bets as he did with a dual endorsement in the South Carolina gubernatorial runoff in June. Instead, Graham’s runoff opponent will be a hardcore fiscal hawk, Congressman Ralph Norman, who forfeited any real chance of becoming Trump’s favorite when he endorsed Nikki Haley for president in 2024.

For all the talk of Trump’s influence and the shadow Lindsey Graham cast over the contest to name his GOP successor, regional appeal mostly appeared to determine the results. Graham lives in suburban Columbia; she swept the Midlands region and also the south coastal Lowcountry (beating local boy Mark Sanford, who finished fourth statewide), which is considered relatively moderate. Norman won big in the Upstate region in the northwestern part of the state, while Fry dominated in his own Pee Dee region in northeastern South Carolina. Graham won roughly a third of the vote and Norman a quarter, which means a lot of votes will be up for grabs in the short runoff campaign. One variable, of course, will be how hard Trump campaigns for Graham. Another is who will show up for a late-August single-contest runoff. Norman’s best hope for upsetting Graham will be to appeal to serious right-wing ideologues, who were never that fond of Lindsey Graham and have no particular reason to trust his sister, a political novice.

Republicans with no particular bone to pick will be pleased with the outcome if only because Fry should now be a shoe-in for reelection to the House, while Norman already gave up his House seat to run unsuccessfully for governor. Had Fry won the Senate nomination, his House seat would have been declared vacant in January at a time when the partisan balance in the chamber could be very close. Assuming the runoff fight doesn’t go off the rails into bitter personal acrimony, the winner will be a heavy favorite over Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews, though a Democratic midterm wave could make things interesting.