Ralph Norman

Senator Darline Graham heads into South Carolina’s special Republican primary with a lead over Representative Ralph Norman, according to the final poll released ahead of Tuesday’s contest.

The final poll from The Trafalgar Group, conducted between August 8 and 10 among 1,027 respondents, found Graham with 26.4 percent support, followed by Norman with 19.5 percent, Representative Russell Fry at 18.4 percent and former Governor Mark Sanford at 18.3 percent.

Business owner Mark Lynch was fifth at 7.5 percent, while 5.4 percent of respondents remained undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

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South Carolina Republicans are casting ballots in the special primary to replace the late Senator Lindsey Graham on the state’s general election ballot. He died unexpectedly on July 11 from an aortic tear, just a few weeks after he won the Republican primary for the seat he first won in 2002.

Darline Graham was appointed by Republican Governor Henry McMaster to serve the remainder of her brother’s term after his death, which ends in January.

A political unknown who was initially viewed by many Republicans as a caretaker, she later announced she would run for a full term after receiving an endorsement from President Donald Trump.

The latest poll numbers suggest Graham is favored to advance to a runoff later in August, but remains far from securing the 50 percent threshold needed to win the contest outright since the rare open Senate seat has attracted a broad field, including some of the state’s top Republicans.

Newsweek has contacted the Graham, Norman and Fry campaigns for comment via email.

What Other Polls Show

An earlier survey showed Graham with a larger lead.

The Quantus Insights poll, conducted among 668 Republican primary voters between August 5 and 6, found Graham leading with 30.4 percent support on the initial ballot. Norman was second at 17.5 percent, followed by Fry at 16.6 percent, and Sanford at 15.4 percent. Another 11.7 percent of voters remained undecided.

Meanwhile, a co/efficient poll conducted between July 28 and 30 among 857 likely voters had Graham leading at 30 percent, followed by Fry at 16 percent and Norman at 15 percent. In hypothetical runoff matchups, Graham led Norman 40 percent to 35 percent, while Fry led Graham 40 percent to 31 percent.

An Emerson College Polling survey, conducted for Nexstar Media on July 28 and 29 among likely Republican primary voters, found Norman leading with 22 percent support followed by Graham at 19 percent, Fry at 12 percent and Sanford at 11 percent. Some 25 percent were undecided.

What The Prediction Markets Show

Prediction markets also show Graham is favored to advance to a runoff, and the only candidate with a chance of winning the special primary outright.

On Polymarket, Graham is given a 40 percent of becoming the nominee, compared with 19 percent for Norman and 14.5 percent for Fry,

A separate market on Polymarket gives her a 62 percent chance of being the first round winner of Tuesday’s special primary. Norman has a 30 percent chance, Fry has a 7 percent chance and every other candidate has a chance of less than one percent.

Rival prediction market Kalshi similarly favors Graham. As of early Tuesday, Kalshi gives her a 42 percent chance of ultimately winning the primary, compared with 33 percent for Norman, 22 percent for Fry and 2 percent for Sanford.

Who’s Running in The August 11 Special Primary?

Ten Republicans are on the special primary ballot to replace the late senator. They are:

Darline Graham: Lindsey Graham’s sister and Trump-endorsed interim senator;

Ralph Norman: Conservative congressman from South Carolina’s 5th District;

Russell Fry: GOP congressman from the state’s 7th District;

Mark Sanford: Former governor seeking a political comeback;

Mark Lynch: Greenville businessman and previous Senate candidate;

Duke Buckner: Attorney and educator running as a conservative outsider;

Glenda Gail Parker: Retired Air Force officer focused on cost-of-living issues;

Danny Ford II: Farmer and businessman emphasizing government accountability;

Mark McBride: Former Myrtle Beach mayor and repeat federal candidate;

Sam Shepherd: Biomedical engineer and entrepreneur.

What Happens Next?

If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the special primary, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff on August 25. The winner will face Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, a physician who won her party’s primary in June outright.

But the Republican nominee will be heavily favored to win since no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat in South Carolina in decades.

When Lindsey Graham last ran for reelection in 2020, he defeated his Democratic opponent, Jaime Harrison, by a 10 percentage point margin. Trump carried the state in the 2024 election with 58 percent of the vote, defeating Democrat Kamala Harris by a margin of almost 20 points.