Raphael Warnock

Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock and other members of the Senate Agriculture Committee have called on the trading commission to publicly release information on their investigation into "suspicious" oil futures trades made during the military operation in Iran.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission launched an investigation into a series of trades made in March on the oil futures market just minutes before President Trump announced postponed strikes on Tehran's energy infrastructure in a post on Truth Social.

In trading records reviewed by the Wall Street Journal, more than $800 million worth of U.S. and international oil futures trades were made in the 15 minutes before the post was published, suggesting the industry movers had prior knowledge that the post would be made.

Now, lawmakers in Congress are pushing the CFTC to publicly release information from their investigation as the "well-timed bets" have contributed to the "extremely volatile" oil market, causing increased gas prices for Americans.

'Suspicious' trades suggest 'market manipulation,' senators say

In an open letter to the CFTC, Senators Warnock, Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Cory Booker (D-NJ), Ben Ray Luján (D-NM), and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) called for a "full investigation" and "public update and report" on the CFTC inquiry into the oil futures trades.

"Recent U.S. military action against Iran has resulted in significant volatility in global markets, with prices surging from $66 to nearly $120 per barrel since the onset of the military action against Iran, with oil futures settling between $100 and $110 per barrel," the senators wrote. "Suspicious trades reportedly occurring minutes before major White House announcements regarding the military conflict in Iran have raised concerns about trading on material nonpublic information and market manipulation."

The senators refer to the March 23 post when trades made "based on the assumption that oil prices would drop" occurred just 15 minutes before Trump posted on Truth Social that talks with Iran over the weekend resulted in the postponement of "any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period."

However, the senators also say this trend of trades has continued throughout the war.

A bet, at approximately $950 million, was made just hours before the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire weeks after the March post, the senators say. The oil futures dropped about 15% after the announcement, earning the investors a major profit.

At the beginning of May, an hour before an Axios report was published suggesting the White House and Iranian officials had reached an agreement, more than $700 million worth of front-month Brent and WTI contracts were traded," the senators write.

"These trades occurred between 3:42 and 3:47 a.m. E.T., a very large trade for pre-market trading hours," the senators said. "This activity may violate Section 6(c)(1) of the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC Rule 180.1, which prohibit the use of manipulative or deceptive devices, including trading on material nonpublic information."

The senators note that these trades could have been made legitimately, but the pattern of timing ahead of major announcements and during off-market trading hours suggests the possibility of "manipulative or deceptive trading practices."

What are oil futures trades?

Trading on oil futures means that buyers and sellers are trading oil contracts for prices that haven't been determined yet, and may be subject to change before the contracts actually come around. Traders will keep their eyes on the market and predict what oil may be selling for in the future, then trade at that price, hoping that the price of the oil will actually be higher than the number they predicted and they can sell the oil at a profit.

For example, if oil is currently selling at $30 a barrel, and there is an oil contract for one barrel that is coming up next month at $35 a barrel, an investor may look at that price and think the price of oil is likely to be higher than $35 by the next month. Then if they buy the $35/barrel contract and a month later the price of oil is $45, they can turn around and sell the contract for a $10 profit, according to Investopedia. Now, imagine this kind of trading at scales of millions of barrels of oil.

There is nothing illegal about normal trading on the oil futures market, though it is considered one of the riskier long-term prediction markets. Investors can find themselves in hot water, however, if they make trades using nonpublic insight from say an oil company employee leaking internal company plans, or nonpublic information from a government that is about to make actions that change the oil market.

How does the price of oil impact gas prices?

The senators allege that the suspicious trades are contributing to the volatile oil market, and in turn the higher price of gas for everyday Americans.

The national average price of a gallon of gas is $4.43, as of May 28, according to AAA. In Georgia, that number is a bit lower at $3.93 per gallon.

Crude oil, or the kind of oil at the center of the oil futures trades, is the primary ingredient in gasoline, meaning if the oil prices continue to increase, so does the price of gas.

As of 2025, the price of crude oil made up 51.4% of the average retail price of gas, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The other 49% of the price comes from the cost of refinement, distribution, marketing and federal and state gas taxes.

The senators say if the suspicious trades have been made in bad faith, there is a small number of investors who are making hundreds of millions of dollars while the rest of the American public continues to struggle at the pump as the war in Iran seems no closer to an end.

Irene Wright covers politics in Georgia as the Atlanta Connect reporter with USA Today’s Deep South Connect team. Find her on X @IreneEWright or email her at [email protected].