Ryan Mackenzie

The stakes couldn’t be higher. The winner of the Democrat primary in Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District will be showered with millions in campaign cash in the hope of knocking off a seemingly vulnerable GOP incumbent and helping turn the U.S. House blue in this year’s midterm elections.

Anchored in the Lehigh Valley and long defined by razor‑thin margins, the district has become one of a handful of races nationally that could help decide control of Congress this fall.

But the race among four candidates to be the party’s standard‑bearer has been mostly mild‑mannered, even as it stretches across a politically diverse district that includes all of Lehigh, Northampton and Carbon counties, along with small parts of Monroe County.

The candidates are Bob Brooks, a state firefighter union president; former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell; Carol Obando‑Derstine, an ex‑aide to former U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. who also worked as a utility company supervisor; and Lamont McClure, who most recently served two terms as Northampton County’s chief executive.

Instead of fireworks, a pair of recent debates produced broad agreement. Candidates were spotted nodding along as rivals spoke. This, as the four Democrats stressed issues such as affordability, health care and government accountability amid DOGE cuts and ICE raids.

Above all, they were united in opposition to President Donald Trump, many of his policies and, of course, the one‑term PA‑07 congressman who ardently supports him: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.

With recent public polling showing both Mackenzie, who is unopposed in the Republican primary, and Trump underwater in the district, they represent Democrats’ real targets as the general election looms.

“The candidates share remarkably similar positions on key issues,” said Professor Christopher P. Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. “They have some differences in the issues that they highlight in their communications, but overall, there is not much in terms of policy disagreements.”

What separates the candidates are the constituencies and geographical areas they are courting across the far‑flung district.

According to Borick, Brooks, with his union leadership and firefighter credentials, is aiming to lock up blue‑collar and working‑class voters. Crosswell’s campaign, he said, “seems to be fostering connections to more moderate Democrats and the significant share of the electorate that’s looking for generational change.”

Meanwhile, McClure’s past electoral success as the top executive in Northampton County and his family ties to Carbon County “have been cornerstones of his pitch,” creating a possible electoral coalition, Borick said.

He added of Obando‑Derstine: “As the only woman and Latina in the field, she can claim an identity connection to the majority of Democratic primary voters who are female and the fastest‑growing demographic in the 7th District.”

Each candidate is vying to broaden support and emerge as the definitive Democrat to counter Trump — and to be best positioned to defeat Mackenzie in November.

The pitched battle for what is expected to be one of the ultimate swing seats in the general election is projected to eclipse the $30 million spent on the race in 2024.

This backdrop makes PA‑07 one of the most closely watched and hotly contested midterm matchups in the country. Any of the four Democrats would have a legitimate shot at knocking off Mackenzie and helping build a party majority in the U.S. House for 2027, Borick said.

“While Mackenzie is a seasoned campaigner and will be very well funded, the stiff political headwinds he is fighting through in this midterm cycle will make it challenging for him to retain the seat,” Borick said. “First‑term House incumbents who won narrowly in the previous election tend to be the types of candidates that are most likely to lose in the subsequent election, especially if it’s a wave election pushing against their party.”

As the four‑way Democratic race enters the final stretch — and what could be a photo finish at the polls — PennLive asked each campaign to size up its chances and outline its closing message to voters.

Ryan Crosswell

Crosswell pointed to nearly 60 meet‑and‑greets in living rooms, dining rooms and kitchens across the district.

“PA‑07 rewards authenticity,” he said. “We’re going to win because we’ve worked the hardest.”

Alluding to his career as a prosecutor, Crosswell cited his top issue as “ending corruption and making life more affordable.”

“These aren’t separate issues, because passing laws has no meaning when the executive branch won’t obey them,” he said, setting up the need for his prosecutorial skills.

Crosswell also addressed criticism over his past voter registration as a Republican.

“I was always pro‑choice, and I voted for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris,” he said. “And being a former Republican makes me an even stronger candidate in the general election.”

Lamont McClure

McClure emphasized his experience running county government, saying he managed “a billion‑dollar government entity and a nearly 2,000‑person workforce for eight years.”

That background, he said, best equips him to tackle what he calls America’s affordability crisis.

McClure also pointed to his large number of small‑dollar donations as evidence of broad‑based grassroots support, contrasting that with PAC money backing rival campaigns.

“It’s clear that big, outside money is trying to pick our nominee for us,” he said.

McClure added that his service in Northampton County, upbringing in Carbon County and base of support in Lehigh County position him to compete across all corners of the district — including among many labor unions.

Carol Obando-Derstine

Citing her immigrant background in an era of ICE raids, Obando‑Derstine cast herself as uniquely prepared to push back against Trump‑era policies.

“Trump’s reign of terror has threatened the American Dream,” she said, “and the voters here know that I am the only candidate in this race prepared to fight back.”

She also stressed kitchen‑table concerns such as rising costs, raising children and declining job prospects.

“I have spent my career lowering costs for working families, advocating for children in the Lehigh Valley and expanding our workforce,” Obando‑Derstine said. “As Election Day approaches on May 19, I know that this experience, along with my background as a working mother, a Colombian immigrant and an energy engineer, will resonate with voters across this district.”

Bob Brooks

Brooks, meanwhile, is touting his blue‑collar background as a badge of honor.

“I’m running for Congress because Washington doesn’t give a damn about working people, and it’s time for that to change,” Brooks said. “I’ve spent my life serving my community and living the challenges of regular people, whether it was behind the wheel of a fire truck putting out fires in Bethlehem or driving a snowplow late into the night.”

Even as Brooks pitches himself as a working‑class candidate, he has secured backing from top Democrats, including Gov. Josh Shapiro, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and U.S. Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

But Brooks has also had to answer for several stumbles.

At one debate, McClure raised questions about old social media posts in which Brooks criticized former President Barack Obama and linked school shootings to a lack of school prayer.

Brooks responded, “Are they stupid posts? They are stupid posts, and for that, I have apologized.”

More recently, Brooks said he “misspoke and made an inaccurate comment” after Axios reported he was tape‑recorded saying Shapiro supported GOP gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity over a Democrat in the 2024 race for state treasurer. Brooks said the comment was inaccurate and involved an allegation that Shapiro retaliated against Democrat Erin McClelland after she publicly questioned whether Shapiro could work for a woman while being vetted as a potential Kamala Harris running mate.

Brooks and his current wife are also being sued for $162,586 by his former mother‑in‑law over a 2008 promissory note. The case has been ongoing since 2018.

In handicapping the primary, Borick noted that Brooks and Crosswell have dominated local television airwaves — a potentially significant advantage over the two lesser‑financed candidates. The Philadelphia Inquirer recently reported that Brooks launched a six‑figure TV ad buy featuring Shapiro.

“Crosswell and Brooks have a clear advantage in making this final pitch given their financial resources and ability to run ads,” Borick said.

There has been no independent public polling in the Democratic primary. However, internal polling conducted by a PAC supporting Brooks and reported by Politico showed him with a seven‑point lead as of mid‑April. Brooks was at 24%, compared with 17% for McClure, among 400 likely Democratic voters surveyed. Notably, 36% of respondents were undecided.

Given all of that, Borick said the race remains difficult to predict.

“Crowded primary fields are notoriously hard to handicap,” he said, “but the combination of major endorsements and financial resources suggests Brooks as a front‑runner.”

Whichever Democrat emerges, the battle for PA‑07 will only be beginning.

The midterm main event — one that could help swing control of the U.S. House — looms large in November.