Seth Moulton

The race between U.S. Senator Ed Markey and Congressman Seth Moulton is tightening, the latest Emerson survey shows, with a mere 5-point gap.

The survey released Thursday finds the incumbent Markey leading Moulton 37% to 32%, with 29% of voters undecided. The survey further found that while Markey has sizable leads among registered Democrats and women, Moulton is holding his own with unenrolled voters.

The survey comes months after Markey held a 19-point lead over Moulton in a UMass Amherst/WCVB poll released in November. It also follows a crushing caucus defeat by Moulton in his hometown of Salem, with Markey claiming six of seven wards in the city.

“Senator Markey leads the Democratic primary by 13 points among registered Democrats, while Rep. Moulton holds a 38% to 32% edge among unenrolled voters. Markey leads women 37% to 29%, while men are essentially split, with 38% backing Moulton and 37% Markey,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said.

“Notably, groups that are more favorable toward Markey, including women and young voters, are also more undecided than their counterparts; women are ten points more undecided than men (33% to 23%), and 39% of voters under 50 are undecided compared to 21% of voters over 50,” Kimball added.

When it comes to different age groups, Markey leads Moulton by seven points among voters under 50 years of age, with 33% backing Markey to Moulton’s 26%. Voters over 50 are virtually split, with 40% supporting Markey and 38% supporting Moulton.

Favorability ratings

Voters were also surveyed on the favorability of five of the state’s most prominent Democrats, including Moulton, Markey, Gov. Maura Healey, Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu.

Markey and Moulton finished with the lowest favorability among the five Democrats, with just 37% and 31% of voters, respectively, viewing them favorably. Markey finished with the highest unfavorability amongst voters in the survey, tied with Healey and Warren at 35%, while 26% of voters view Moulton unfavorably. A whopping 43% of voters were neutral or never heard of Moulton compared to Markey’s 28%.

While tied with Markey and Warren for the highest number of voters viewing her unfavorably, Healey finished as the second most popular among the five Democrats featured in the survey, joining Mayor Wu with 45% of voters viewing her favorably. Just 20% of those surveyed were neutral or never heard of Healey. Boston’s mayor was viewed unfavorably by 34% of voters, with 21% either neutral or not having heard of her.

Warren was the only one of the five candidates who finished with the highest number of voters viewing her both favorably and unfavorably. Warren matched Healey and Markey with 35% of voters viewing her unfavorably, with 48% of voters at the same time viewing her favorably. Just 17% of those surveyed either hadn’t heard of Warren or had a neutral view of her.

Potential ballot measures

Several potential ballot measures were also surveyed by Emerson, with questions regarding lowering the state income tax and rent control gaining the most favorability among voters polled.

A majority of 62% of voters would vote yes on a ballot measure lowering the state income tax from 5% to 4% by 2029, with 19% against it and 20% undecided. Both House Speaker Ron Mariano and Gov. Maura Healey have publicly expressed their opposition to the potential ballot question.

Another vast majority of 60% said they would vote yes on a ballot measure to cap annual rent increases in Massachusetts to no more than 5%, with 26% of respondents voting no and 14% undecided.

On the potential ballot question to change the current party primary system in Massachusetts to all-party primaries, where candidates from all parties would be listed on the same ballot with the top two vote getters advancing to the general election, 50% of voters say they would vote yes, with 29% voting no and 21% undecided.