Seth Moulton

Democratic Senator Ed Markey led Representative Seth Moulton by 5 points in a new Emerson College poll of the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race released on Thursday.

Moulton, 47, is running against Markey, 79, in a race that reflects debate over calls for generational change in the Democratic Party—but also has ideological divides, as Moulton is seen as more centrist than Markey. The poll suggests a close race between the two Democrats. A Moulton victory would be stunning, as incumbent senators rarely lose in primary challenges.

Ed Markey's Narrow Lead in Emerson College Poll

Markey received the backing of 37 percent of Democrats in the poll, while 32 percent said they planned to vote for Moulton. Twenty-nine percent said they were still undecided on whom they would support in the primary. The poll points to a particularly close race for a well-known incumbent who has not faced any major scandals.

The analysis surveyed 451 likely voters on May 3 and May 4, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

Although the campaign reflects generational themes, Markey’s lead is bolstered by younger voters, according to the poll. The senator is ahead with voters younger than 50 by 7 points (33 percent to 26 percent). Among those 50 and older, Markey leads by only 2 points (40 percent to 38 percent).

“Notably, groups that are more favorable toward Markey, including women and young voters, are also more undecided than their counterparts; women are ten points more undecided than men (33% to 23%), and 39% of voters under 50 are undecided compared to 21% of voters over 50,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball wrote in the survey release.

Taylor Hebble, spokesperson for Moulton, wrote in a press release that the poll reflects “momentum” the representative's campaign is seeing on the ground in Massachusetts.

A longtime incumbent being under 50 percent “is a clear signal from Massachusetts voters that they are looking for a new generation of leadership,” Hebble wrote.

Newsweek also reached out to Markey's campaign for comment via email.

What Do Prediction Markets, Other Polls Show?

Markey has led Moulton in other polls of the Senate primary.

A University of New Hampshire poll, which surveyed 353 likely primary voters from April 16-20, showed Markey up 13 points. In that poll, the senator received 46 percent support, compared to Moulton’s 33 percent.

In a Suffolk University poll, Markey led by 17 points, receiving 47 percent to Moulton’s 30 percent. It surveyed 500 likely voters from April 9-13, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Prediction markets also favor Markey. Kalshi gave him a 73 percent chance of beating Moulton in the primary, while Polymarket offered a 69 percent chance, as of Thursday afternoon.

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment.

Ed Markey Faced Primary Six Years Earlier

Markey found himself in a similar primary during his last reelection in 2020.

In that race, then-Representative Joe Kennedy III held an early lead against the senator in his challenge. By Election Day, Markey had reversed that lead and ended up winning by more than 10 points.

He did so by unifying more progressive voters in the solidly blue state, winning endorsements from top progressives. He also won support among younger Democrats, who helped build his social media presence on the “Markeyverse,” a network of meme accounts that supported his reelection.

Markey wound up victorious by about 10 points in the primary and went on to easily win reelection in November.