Sharice Davids

Kansas Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate seat since 1932, the longest active losing streak in the country.

A favorable political environment and a top-tier candidate are needed for Democrats to break the streak.

The article suggests U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids could be a formidable candidate against incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall.

Davids has a strong fundraising record and has consistently outperformed political expectations in her elections.

Kansas Democrats last won a U.S. Senate seat in 1932. That’s the longest active losing streak in the nation.

There’s only been one close race. In 1974, Bob Dole edged Bill Roy by 1.7 points. Democrats haven’t come close since.

Which raises the question: What would it take for Democrats to finally break the streak?

First, the broader political environment must break decisively in their favor. Second, they must field a top-tier candidate.

Let’s consider the environment.

Since 1934, the president’s party has lost an average of four Senate seats in midterm elections. High presidential approval can blunt those losses and in rare cases, like 2002 in the aftermath of 9/11, even produce gains. Low approval can increase them, like in 2006, when George W. Bush’s approval fell to the low 30s and Republicans lost six Senate seats.

Trump’s approval rating has slipped steadily since taking office and is especially low among Independents whose support will be crucial in November.

Midterm elections also have much lower voter turnout than presidential years. The smaller electorate tilts heavily toward the out-party, which is more motivated to regain power.

In addition, shifting party coalitions benefit Democrats. Democrat voters today are more affluent and educated than in the past, characteristics strongly associated with political participation, especially in off-year election cycles.

Thus, intense Democrat motivation to stop Trump, stronger turnout propensity, and Trump’s low approval ratings together create a rare opening for Kansas Democrats.

Yet, so far, the Senate contest has failed to attract topnotch candidates.

Laura Kelly ruled it out. Barbara Bollier, who turned in the most competitive performance by a Democrat in a quarter-century, losing by 11 points against Roger Marshall in 2020, appears content working behind the scenes.

That brings us to U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids.

Citing Republican plans to gerrymander her congressional district, Davids signaled a potential Senate bid, though nothing official. While gerrymandering efforts seem to have lost momentum, they’ve worked to Davids’s advantage, amplifying her visibility and providing an unambiguous vehicle for attacking Republican overreach and extremism, themes that historically play well for Kansas Democrats.

For 2025, Davids raised 2.3 million, nearly 40% coming from small donations under $200. During the same time period, incumbent U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall raised 2.5 million, with high dollar contributions over $2,000 making up the largest share.

Davids has also established herself as a formidable campaigner. She not only unseated four-term incumbent Kevin Yoder by a commanding 9-point margin in 2018 but has since turned the 3rd Congressional District into a reliably blue seat.

In advanced forecasting models, Davids stands out, repeatedly outperforming expectations derived from political fundamentals. By contrast, Marshall underperforms, falling well short of what an average Republican candidate would achieve given the environmental conditions.

Davids, in other words, could be the Democrat who ends the streak.

She would undoubtedly attract national attention, having already broken down barriers, becoming a historic first in several categories.

Now, the chance to dismantle another long-standing barrier lies ahead. If you value political competition, you’re hoping Davids takes that chance.

Mark R. Joslyn is a professor at the University of Kansas.