Shomari Figures

It has been less than a month since Republicans celebrated the revival of a GOP-favored congressional map in Alabama, one they believed would easily secure them an additional U.S. House seat in November.

But in the famous words of college football analyst Lee Corso: “Not so fast, my friend.”

Last week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee signaled that it intends to compete for the seat and help freshman Democratic U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures win re-election. And this week, the Cook Political Report shifted the 2nd Congressional District from “solid” Republican to “likely” Republican, underscoring that the district could become Alabama’s most-watched general election race outside the governor’s contest.

“Figures has a 49-51 shot at winning,” said Joseph Aistrup, professor of political sciences at Auburn University. “I think he’s a slight underdog. But there is reason for optimism in the Figures/Democratic camp.”

Erin Covey, who leads U.S. House coverage for the Cook Political Report, said the initial “solid R” rating came at a time when it was unclear whether Figures would run in the 2nd District. The rating moved to “likely” Republican on Thursday. Covey said she has a “hard time seeing this get to a true Toss Up,” but added that “it’s not impossible.”

Cook now labels the 2nd District as a +7 Republican seat, a shift from the +5 Democratic advantage before the U.S. Supreme Court ruled earlier this month that Alabama could use a congressional map that flipped the district to a Republican advantage.

Democratic opportunity

Figures will not face a primary opponent during the Aug. 11 special primary elections in the newly redrawn district centered on Montgomery and much of the rural Wiregrass. The district is no longer considered a Black opportunity district, with its demographics now 50.9% white and 39.9% Black.

Republicans, however, are lining up. The Aug. 11 winner-take-all primary includes Rhett Marques, Joshua McKee, James Richardson, Christian Horn, Hampton Harris and David Mathews.

As currently drawn, the district, according to Cook, would have supported President Donald Trump by 14 points in the 2024 election.

Still, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee wants to keep the district—now drawn to favor Republicans—in Democratic hands, setting up a rare competitive general election for a federal office in Alabama. The committee selected Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District as part of its Frontline program, which directs resources to the most pivotal congressional races.

Democrats see several reasons the district remains winnable:

Montgomery turnout was strong during the May 19 primary, with 35.4% of voters casting ballots and more expected in November. The Democratic majority city anchors an otherwise rural, ruby-red 2nd district.

Black voter mobilization is rising amid anger over Supreme Court decisions this spring viewed as weakening the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

Republican turnout uncertainty persists after GOP participation slumped in some conservative counties during the primary.

The Figures family legacy remains well known and influential in Alabama politics. Figures’ late father, Michael, was a civil rights lawyer and a former president pro tempore of the Alabama State Senate. His mother, Vivian, is a current and longtime state senator representing Mobile.

“The new district Congressman Figures is running in is undoubtedly a tougher climb but everything we are seeing heading into the 2026 midterms is Democrats will be very competitive in many places Republicans have been taking for granted,” said Zac McCrary, an Alabama-based Democratic pollster. “All indications are Democratic voters are angry and ready to turn out, while Republicans are less engaged and somewhat disappointed as Trump’s approvals have plunged in his second term.”

An NBC News poll recently showed Trump’s approval at 39%, including declines among rural voters, though one poll suggests he remains popular in Alabama with a 53% approval rating.

Turnout in Montgomery and among Figures’ supporters will be central to his chances.

“There is a very good chance that Black (voters) will turnout more than normal to support Figures,” Aistrup said. “If they represent 45% of the turnout in the 2nd, Figures chances of winning significantly increases. The key for Figures will be to turnout Black voters, without igniting a white backlash.”

McCrary expects “the Republican attacks on the Voting Rights Act” to serve as a “real accelerant to motivate Black voters,” benefitting Figures.

“The Democratic Party has different elements and early in the Trump term, the MSNBC Democrats were already angry at Trump – but now, post (Voting Rights Act) decision, we are also seeing the Church Pew Democrats now fully engaged,” he said. “Having those dual elements ready to turn out is a blinking red danger sign for Republicans in a seat like AL-02.”

Republican advantages

At least one Republican has an early financial edge. Marques is the best-funded candidate and has the backing of U.S. Sen. Katie Britt. Federal Election Commission filings through April 29 show Marques with $469,298 in cash on hand, compared with Figures’ $320,931.

The DCCC’s involvement has not gone unnoticed by the Marques campaign.

“Radical far-left dark money won’t change the fact that Alabamians want common sense,” said Saylor Cuzzort, a spokesperson for Rhett for Alabama. “While Democrats defend criminal illegal aliens and allow men in our girls’ locker rooms, Rhett has made life more affordable for hardworking Alabama families. He cut the grocery tax in half, eliminated the tax on diapers and formula, and he’ll take that same Alabama common sense to Washington.”

Other Republicans are also responding. Richardson, of rural Headland, said the DCCC can “invest whatever it wants,” but that the district “belongs to the people who live here,” not Washington strategists. He also noted, without naming Figures, that the incumbent is not a resident of the 2nd District. Figures is from Mobile, which was redrawn into the more conservative 1st District.

“I grew up here,” Richardson said. “These are my neighbors and the folks who shaped me. I’m running to represent a community I’m actually part of, not a district chosen for political convenience.”

Localized issues

Jess Brown, a retired political science professor at Athens State University, said Figures must connect on economic issues, especially agriculture. Figures and U.S. Rep. Barry Moore of Enterprise, the GOP Senate nominee, are the only members of Alabama’s congressional delegation on the U.S. House Committee on Agriculture.

“Figures should emphasize that with Moore’s departure, Figures will be Alabama’s only agribusiness voice on this committee which is critical to farming and forestry,” Brown said.

Brown noted one early challenge: Figures voted against the 2026 farm bill, legislation typically supported by farm and forestry groups. Figures said the bill did not go far enough to protect Alabama farmers, assist states with obligations under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), or safeguard rural hospitals. Last week, his office highlighted $4.25 million in appropriations for rural hospitals, including $2 million for Troy Regional Medical Center.

On Thursday, the Alabama Farmers Federation endorsed Marques.

McCrary said Figures will campaign on his “workhorse” record.

“He spent his first term delivering real results – whether that was protecting rural healthcare in Troy or reaching across the aisle to lead on highway safety and national trucking infrastructure,” he said. “Independents and common sense Republicans can see he’s interested in drawing people together to solve problems, not drawing battle lines to score cheap political points.”