Susan Collins

Maine Democrats have just over two weeks to pick a replacement for Graham Platner on the midterm ballot as they try to unseat longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins and help the national party flip control of the U.S. Senate.

“I think the goal will be to pick the person who's most moderate without being so moderate that they alienate progressives, and so it'll be trying to thread that needle,” Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said Friday.

Jones said Democrats were effectively trapped with Platner – a scandal-ridden candidate who embraced a liberal, populist message in the vein of Sen. Bernie Sanders – after he won the Maine Democratic primary last month.

“I think they had adopted the view of, ‘We're stuck with him, we might as well make the best of it, because this seat and control of the Senate is too important, and we don't have any other options,’” Jones said.

To that point in the campaign, Platner had survived scandals involving alleged extramarital sexting, controversial Reddit posts, and a tattoo that resembled a Nazi symbol.

Still, voters stuck with him.

Several polls over the last month, including one from The New York Times and Siena Research Institute, showed Platner leading Collins. A Fox News poll released late last month, however, showed Collins with a small lead over Platner.

But then came a new allegation that Platner raped a woman he had a casual dating relationship with in 2021, an allegation Platner denies.

But that seemingly was the last straw, and Platner dropped out of the Senate race this week.

Did Democrats hurt their cause by supporting Platner for so long?

“Certainly, in retrospect, it looks like they did,” said Nicholas Jacobs, a political scientist at Colby College in Maine. “You know, if only there were signs, or five of them, right?”

Democrats need to gain a net of four seats to win a majority in the Senate after this fall’s midterm elections.

Maine is one of only three GOP-held toss-up seats listed by the Cook Political Report, and Jones said it should be the second-easiest seat for Democrats to gain after North Carolina.

Platner staying in the race would have hurt Democrats nationally by reputation, Jones said.

But now Democrats are left scrambling to pick the best person to beat Collins with only a few more months to campaign.

Jones described Maine as a "light blue" state, where Democrats should have an inherent advantage.

But both he and Jacobs said Collins has a track record of overcoming the partisan disadvantage. Jacobs called Collins a “powerful incumbent who is persistently underrated.”

There will be no new primary elections for Platner’s replacement.

By state law, the Maine Democratic Party is responsible for naming his replacement. And it has got to put its candidate forward by July 27.

Platner has until Monday to file the paperwork to ensure his name gets removed from the ballot.

And the state party has given potential replacement candidates until the middle of next week, the 15th, to throw their hats into the ring.

“I don't think you're going to get somebody from the hard, populist left,” Jacobs said. “And so, to the extent that the Democrats, you know, six years ago when Susan beat them, were looking at this election saying, ‘Well, next time it's all going to depend on motivating the base to come out,’ their No. 1 shot of doing that is no longer on the ballot.”

Jacobs said Maine is still in play for Democrats, but no replacement will be as exciting for the Democratic left as Platner.

And he said the new candidate will come into the race “hobbled” in the wake of the Platner turmoil.

“Everybody is doing this in the shadow of the Dems messing this up two years ago with Joe Biden, and I know that weighs on everybody's mind,” Jacobs said of how Kamala Harris replaced Biden with only months to go in the 2024 presidential election, leaving her campaign scrambling to play catch-up and connect with voters.

That’s why Jacobs said he’s guessing Maine Democrats will pick one of the recent gubernatorial candidates: Troy Jackson, Nirav Shah or Shenna Bellows.

All are known quantities for the party with name recognition for the voters. And all three have announced they're in the running.

But Jacobs said there is no clear front-runner.