Susan Collins

Democrat Troy Jackson has led three consecutive polls of the Maine Senate race against Republican Senator Susan Collins since becoming the party’s nominee last month—but history offers a warning to Democrats in Maine that a polling lead does not necessarily guarantee a victory in November.

Collins could be facing her toughest reelection yet in Maine, a state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points in 2024, as Democrats anticipate a favorable national environment driven by President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating. Although Collins has been able to win tough races in the past due to her moderate image and personal popularity, Democrats see this as their best opportunity to unseat the longtime Republican senator.

But Democrats have faced a tumultuous path to the general election. Progressive Graham Platner emerged as a favorite among many Mainers with his anti-establishment campaign, sailing to victory in the Democratic primary. But he was hit with sexual abuse allegations just weeks after clinching the nomination. He ultimately withdrew from the race but has denied the allegations.

Read More on News

Jackson emerged as the new nominee during a convention in July, easily securing the required delegates to find his place on the ballot. He was viewed as being ideologically closer in line with Platner, as Jackson is a progressive who received Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders’ endorsement in the governor's primary, which he ultimately lost to Hannah Pingree.

Two recent polls have shown Jackson with a lead, but Republicans have noted that Collins’ 2020 challenger Sara Gideon led nearly every poll in 2020 but ultimately fell short on Election Day. A similar polling error in 2026 could spell trouble for Democrats hoping to flip the Maine seat in November.

Newsweek reached out to the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment via email.

Troy Jackson Leads Polls After Becoming Nominee

A new Hart Research Associates poll, sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC, affiliated with Democrats, showed Jackson with a four-point lead over Collins, 49 percent to 45 percent, with 6 percent still undecided.

The pollster wrote in a report that Collins appears in "notably worse shape today than she was at a comparable moment in her previous reelection campaign," and that polls from a similar point in 2020 showed her tied with Gideon.

It surveyed 802 likely voters from July 27-August 1, 2026 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a University of New Hampshire poll also showed Jackson up three points, 49 percent to 46 percent. It surveyed 1,178 likely voters from July 15-20, 2026. A Public Policy Polling survey first reported by Politico after the Platner scandals broke showed Jackson up five points, 49 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 785 registered voters on July 7, 2026.

How Jackson’s Polling Compares to Gideon in 2020

A poll from Hart Research and Fabrizio Ward released in September 2020 showed Gideon with a single-point lead over Collins, 44 percent to 43 percent, with a progressive independent candidate Lisa Savage seeing 6 percent support. It polled 800 likely voters between August 30 and September 5, 2020.

The final polls of the race also gave Gideon a slight advantage.

A Change Research poll, which surveyed 1,024 likely voters from October 29-November 2, 2020, showed Gideon leading with 54 percent support versus Collins’ 46 percent after ranked choice kicked in and the ballots of voters who supported third-party candidates were redistributed.

An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 611 likely voters from October 29-31, 2020, showed Gideon up with 51 percent to Collins’ 47 percent after ranked choice.

However, Collins won with about 51 percent of the vote to Gideon’s 42 percent. Progressive independent Lisa Savage received 5 percent of the vote, while a more conservative independent, Max Linn, received less than 2 percent. Democrats believe the race may have been closer had ranked choice been involved, but that proved irrelevant as Collins won an outright majority.

Maine is generally seen as a more difficult state to poll because of its independent electorate and large rural population. Ranked choice also makes the state difficult to poll, as pollsters would need to know the second choice from the small segment of the electorate backing third-party and independent candidates to accurately gauge how they might break in the general.

One key difference this year is that only Collins and Jackson will appear on the ballot; in 2020, both Savage and independent conservative Max Linn appeared on the ballot, adding a layer of complexity to the polling.

Still, 2026 is a different environment compared to 2020. There will be no presidential candidate on the ballot, for one. And Democrats are hopeful that they will be able to make the race a referendum on Trump—not Collins.

Trump is deeply unpopular in Maine. A poll from The New York Times, Siena University and The Portland Press Herald showed his approval at 38 percent, with 59 percent disapproving of his job performance. It surveyed 608 likely voters from June 19-26, 2026.

Nationally, Trump’s approval has fallen to record lows in some recent polls amid concerns about the cost of living, inflation and gas prices amid the Iran war. Collins has worked to distance herself from Trump, voting with Democrats in support of a War Powers Resolution to curb his ability to wage war, as well as saying she plans to vote against Trump’s attorney general nominee Todd Blanche.

Forecasters See Toss-Up Race as Prediction Markets Favor Jackson

The race is viewed as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, meaning it’s one of the most competitive races of the midterms.

Prediction markets, on the other hand, believe Jackson is favored to win. He had a 65 percent chance of flipping the seat on Kalshi and a 68 percent chance on Polymarket as of Thursday morning.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Maine Is Must-Win Senate Race for Democrats

The Maine Senate race won’t just be watched by Mainers, as it has critical national implications. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and Maine is a top opportunity, as Collins is the only Republican in a state that Harris won.

The Senate seat in North Carolina, where Republican Thom Tillis is retiring, is another prime chance to flip a seat for Democrats. Backing Trump by three points, it is the only GOP-held seat in a state Trump won by single digits. Democrats are defending seats in Trump-won swing states Georgia and Michigan.

Even if Democrats win all four of those critical seats, Republicans would still have a 51-49 majority, so Democrats are eyeing more conservative states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as possible flips. All backed Trump by double digits, but polls point to close races in those states.

Collins holding on in November would complicate Democrats’ path to a majority. In that scenario, they would have to flip three of those double-digit Trump state seats to reach 51 seats.

What Happens Next

Polls will continue to be watched as critical gauges of Maine’s electorate in such a key race. Both candidates will spend the coming months making their cases to voters, working to persuade independents to vote for them in November.