Susan Collins

Democrats in Maine have a new nominee to take on long-time incumbent Sen. Susan Collins in a race that is pivotal for both parties in the battle for control of the Senate after the November midterms as the race hits a final sprint toward Election Day.

The formal nomination of Troy Jackson, a former Maine Senate president and logger, gives Democrats a chance to reset after Graham Platner’s campaign unraveled in scandal but also leaves with less than 100 days to build up a statewide campaign to take one of the nation’s most durable incumbents.

Platner withdrew from the race after being accused of sexual assault that he denied amid a long series of scandals. Jackson secured the nomination over the weekend after rallying support of Maine Democrats.

Collins’ seat is one of the best pickup opportunities for Democrats with few competitive GOP-held seats up for reelection this year. The race has drawn national attention and has already attracted tens of millions of dollars in outside spending as both parties battle for control of the Senate.

With Platner’s withdrawal, Democrats now have a candidate with less baggage to take on a five-term incumbent with a history of bucking the national political environment. But Jackson also has to quickly consolidate the grassroots coalition Platner built over the past year while distancing himself from the controversy that ended his predecessor's campaign.

“What remains to be seen is how Jackson plays out on the campaign trail. Is he going to be able to do the kind of things that Platner was able to do in terms of energizing folks and raising small dollar donations?” said Mark Brewer, chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Maine.

Beyond the change in nominee, many of the fundamentals of the race remain similar. Jackson’s policy platform is mostly in line with Platner’s with arguments that the existing political system has been geared toward the wealthy and corporations at the cost of workers. He has supported other progressive positions like Medicare for all and abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Collins and aligned Republican groups have sought to cast Jackson as being too far left and tie him to democratic socialists, a label he does not identify with. She has described Jackson as a “Bernie bro,” and allied groups have tried to tie him to Platner, who he campaigned with earlier this year alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a leading figure in progressive politics.

Jackson and Democrats have tried to tie Collins to Trump at every chance to undercut her argument that she is an independent voice for Mainers. They have also highlighted her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who was part of the majority that overturned Roe v. Wade.

“She voted with him 96% of the time,” Jackson said during his victory speech. “She helped deliver enormous tax breaks to corporations and the wealthy on our backs. And she voted to confirm Kavanaugh and Gorsuch, the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade.”

As the campaigns sharpen their attacks, early signs point to a highly competitive race.

Limited polling on the race has found the race effectively tied between Jackson and Collins. A University of New Hampshire survey released last week found Jackson with a slight lead but within the margin of error. It also found he had a small lead among independent voters and a majority of Mainers holding an unfavorable view of Collins.

Midterm environments have historically favored the party opposite of the White House and Maine has tilted further toward Democrats in recent presidential elections. But Collins has a long history of overcoming challenging political environments and retaining her seat despite the state’s tilt in presidential races.

Collins is the only Republican senator representing a state former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024, making Maine one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities on an otherwise difficult Senate map. Harris carried the state by roughly 7%.

Jackson’s compressed timeline also leaves him with a significant financial disadvantage. Collins had $11 million in the bank heading into this month, according to her most recent campaign finance report. Senate Republicans’ primary super PAC has also already announced plans to spend $42 million in the state, further bolstering the cash advantage.

He only raised $1 million for his gubernatorial primary campaign and does not have a history of being a strong fundraiser. Jackson’s third place finish in the Democratic gubernatorial primary this year was the first time he had run statewide, but he has a history of winning elections in parts of Maine that have supported Trump. He raised roughly $2 million in the first 24 hours after he was formally nominated on Saturday but is still facing a deep deficit between Collins’ coffers and outside groups bolstering her campaign.

“He's going to struggle to catch Collins and her supporters financially,” Brewer said. “The question for Jackson is, can he can he cobble together enough funding where he doesn't have to not do something he wants to do?”