Susan Collins

Now that Graham Platner has withdrawn his Senate candidacy, his supporters in Maine seem equally furious at their former nominee and at national Democratic operatives both left and center. The former seized on Platner as a bundle of male proletarian stereotypes without bothering to vet him thoroughly for precisely the sort of background and character issues that brought him down. The latter cleared the field of viable alternatives to the hapless Janet Mills, even as they worked behind the scenes to undermine Platner and then exulted in his humiliation. The national narrative, as my Maine-residing colleague Rebecca Traister put it, promoted a “cartoonish proxy war … pitting the oysterman Platner, working-class cosplayer and dirtbaggy avatar of the male left, against a hidebound Establishment.” So it’s understandable that the locals would just as soon be left alone to work out their own representation in the U.S. Senate.

But it’s also understandable that Democrats nationwide tend to believe that “as Maine goes, so goes the Senate,” to adapt the ancient slogan about that state’s bellwether status. Susan Collins is the only GOP incumbent up for reelection this year whose state Kamala Harris carried in 2024. In fact, Maine hasn’t gone Republican in a presidential election since 1988, when George H.W. Bush (whose family maintained a summer retreat in Kennebunkport for many decades) won the presidency. Collins got lucky with a weak opponent in 2020 and has been given considerable leeway to distance herself from Donald Trump. But still, she is a Trump enabler and represents low-hanging fruit for 2026 … or at least she did until Platner’s campaign imploded.

As Maine Democrats try to get their act together, it’s a good time to ask the question: Could Democrats possibly flip control of the Senate without taking down Collins? Let’s take a fresh look at the math.

With Vice-President J.D. Vance holding a tiebreaking Senate vote, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to gain control of the chamber. According to the authoritative Cook Political Report ratings of 2026 Senate races, there are five GOP-held seats other than Collins’s that are in a competitive range. North Carolina, where Republican Thom Tillis is retiring, is rated “lean Democratic,” with former governor Roy Cooper running very strong. Races to defenestrate Dan Sullivan in Alaska (with former statewide congresswoman Mary Peltola as the Democratic nominee) and topple appointed senator Jon Husted in Ohio (former three-term senator Sherrod Brown is running there) are rated toss-ups. Winning all the toss-ups against the White House party in a midterm election is not a big reach, particularly when the president is as unpopular as Trump. Then there are two more races rated as “lean Republican”: the Republican-held seats in Iowa (where Democrat Josh Turek is running even with Republican Ashley Hinson) and Texas (where Democrat James Talarico is running even with MAGA wild man Ken Paxton). And while it’s rated “likely republican,” GOP Senator Pete Ricketts’s Nebraska seat is in everyone’s peripheral vision, given the potential strength of independent (but Democrat-supported) Dan Osborn.

So even if Susan Collins wins, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas offer a path to a Democratic majority with Nebraska being a possible wild card. And of course, that assumes Democrats win their own competitive races in “lean Democratic” Georgia (where incumbent Jon Ossoff has a solid lead over Republican Mike Collins) and New Hampshire (Democrat Chris Pappas has a slim but steady lead over former senator John E. Sununu), plus the toss-up race in Michigan (an open Democratic-controlled seat where Republican Mike Rogers awaits the winner of a high-profile Democratic primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens).

Is it improbable that Democrats will win seven of nine competitive Senate races in November (not counting Maine)? Not necessarily. That’s how wave elections tend to work. Democrats netted six Senate seats in 2006 and eight in 2008, while Republicans netted nine in 2014. Yes, Trump carried Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Georgia, and Michigan in 2024 — all but the last two by double digits — making them officially “red states” for the moment. But Democrats have unusually strong candidates in Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia and an unusually weak opponent in Texas. If there’s any GOP ace in the hole, it could be a stash of national PAC money (the value of which was enhanced by a recent U.S. Supreme Court campaign-finance ruling) it can deploy strategically. But that’s hardly a guarantee of victory.

Besides, Susan Collins is hardly out of the woods; indeed, her best hope of survival might have been to run against a damaged but not defeated Platner. If Maine Democrats can unite behind a viable and scandal-free substitute, there’s plenty of time to challenge this vulnerable incumbent. And if they know what’s good for them, national Democrats should try to keep a relatively low profile down east.