Susan Collins

Political newcomer Graham Platner leads U.S. Sen. Susan Collins by 9 points, according to a new independent poll released Wednesday.

Released less than two weeks before the June 9 primaries, the poll also shows a close Democratic race in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. The poll was conducted May 21-25 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Platner, a Democrat, has consistently led Collins, a five-term Republican incumbent, in independent polling. But these surveys are not predictive, and only represent voter sentiment at a point in time.

In 2020, polls consistently showed Collins trailing former Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon leading up to Election Day. Collins ended up winning by nine points in the same cycle that Democrat Joe Biden beat Republican Donald Trump in the presidential race.

The poll released Wednesday shows Platner, a 41-year-old oyster farmer and combat veteran, leading Collins 51-42%, with 6% undecided and 2% preferring “another candidate.”

The nine-point lead is two points less than his 11-point lead in UNH’s February poll.

Gov. Janet Mills suspended her U.S. Senate campaign in late April, making Platner the presumptive Democratic nominee. But her name will still appear on the June 9 primary ballot, and 10% of respondents said she remained their first choice — down from 26% in February.

The Democratic primary ballot will also include David Costello, a former government official from Brunswick. He drew 3% support in the UNH survey, while 8% were undecided. Democratic write-in candidate Andrea LaFlamme was not included in the survey.

The general election poll is consistent with an independent survey released last week by Portland-based Pan Atlantic Research. That poll showed Platner leading by seven points — a three-point increase from the firm’s March survey.

The polls showed differing results for independent voters, who make up a third of the state’s electorate.

UNH’s survey showed Collins with an edge among unaffiliated voters, 47% to 44%, while Pan Atlantic’s poll showed Platner leading 48% to 35%.

CONGRESSIONAL RACES

In the Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District, the survey showed former Capitol Hill staffer Jordan Wood and State Sen. Joe Baldacci in a virtual dead heat.

Twenty-three percent of voters preferred Wood as their top choice, while 22% chose Baldacci, the UNH poll found.

State Auditor and former Secretary of State Matt Dunlap got 17%, while social worker Paige Loud received 14%.

A quarter of those surveyed were undecided.

Wood also led the field in net favorability. At plus 32, he topped Dunlap (plus 25), Loud (plus 13) and Baldacci (plus 12).

Dunlap and Baldacci were respondents’ top second choices at 31% and 26%, respectively, while Wood and Loud were their top third-place choices at 29% and 16%.

UNH surveyed 244 likely Democratic primary voters in the 2nd District, a tiny sample size. Those results had a margin of error of plus/minus 6.3%.

On the Republican side, Ronald Russell led Joshua Pietrowicz 24% to 7% in the 1st Congressional District race, with 68% undecided.

UHN polled 209 likely Republican primary voters in that race. Those results had a margin of error of plus/minus 6.8%.

This is a developing story.