Susan Collins

A new Fox News poll shows Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins in a tight race against Democrat Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president and fifth generation logger.

But the poll contains good news for Jackson. A majority of voters surveyed said they’re concerned about Collins’ voting record in support of President Donald Trump’s agenda. And Democrats are more enthusiastic about the midterms than Republicans.

It’s one of the few independent polls since Jackson secured the Democratic nomination last month after the previous nominee, Graham Platner, withdrew from the race.

The survey of 1,000 registered voters from Aug. 6-10 showed Jackson in a virtual tie with the five-term incumbent, 48% to 46%. The 2-point margin is within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3 points. Four percent of respondents were undecided.

In June, the same polling firm found Collins had a slight edge over Platner, 50% to 47%.

Republican-aligned groups had been spending millions to hammer Platner in ads over a series of old Reddit posts and his tattoo of a Nazi image that he had removed last fall. And they highlighted national reporting about his alleged mistreatment of women. He withdrew from the race after a Maine woman accused him of raping her, an accusation he denies.

Advertisement

Jackson’s selection as the replacement nominee at a special state convention in July appears to have reset the race, making it more of a referendum on Collins’ record.

The Fox survey found that 55% of voters said they were concerned that Collins votes too often with Trump, who had a -20 point net favorability rating in the Pine Tree State. That concern was shared among self-described independents (52%), moderates (56%) and voters in rural areas (51%.) Independents make up nearly a third of the Maine’s electorate.

Collins has voted with Trump some 95% of the time — one of the lowest rates among Republican senators.

However, Collins’ allies released their first anti-Jackson negative ads this week, and national Republicans groups are also amplifying Bangor Daily News reporting about an altercation Jackson had when he was a teenager. Collins and her allies will continue to try to drive down Jackson’s favorability rating, and they have a massive cash advantage with which to do so.

But for now, voters are viewing Jackson more favorably that Collins. His net favorability rating in the Fox poll was +1 point (47% favorable, 46% unfavorable), while Collins was 10 points underwater (44% favorable, 54% unfavorable.)

Efforts to tie Jackson to the Democratic Socialist movement do not appear to be landing the way they were with Platner. The poll found that 43% of respondents were concerned that Jackson is “too close” to the movement. That’s down from the 54% who were concerned about Plater’s alignment with the DSA.

Advertisement

And Democrats also hold an edge in voter enthusiasm, with 88% expressing interest in the midterms, including 63% saying they’re “extremely interested.” On the Republican side, 81% said they were interested, including 45% who said they were “extremely interested.”

But the poll is not all good news for Jackson and Democrats.

Sixty-one percent of his supporters say they are voting against Collins, compared to 36% who said they are voting for him. That’s a higher share of anti-Collins sentiment than the June survey, which found half of Platner’s supporters were voting for him and only 48% were voting against Collins.

Meanwhile, 71% of respondents said they were voting for Collins, while 27% said they were voting against Jackson. That’s a significant uptick since June, when only 53% of voters said they supported Collins and 45% said they were voting against Platner.

Jackson’s support also seems softer than Collins’. Twenty-one percent of Jackson supporters said they may change their minds, compared to 15% of Collins supporters.

The survey also found a tightening three-way race for governor.

The poll found that Democrat Hannah Pingree, a former House speaker and staffer for Gov. Janet Mills’ administration, held a nine-point lead over Republican and lawyer Bobby Charles, 49% to 38%. That’s down from the 11-point lead Pingree had in the same poll in June.

Rick Bennett, a former Republican state senator who is running as an independent, drew 9% support in the poll. He did not appear in the June survey.

This is a developing story.