Ted Cruz

Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, said earlier this week that Democrat James Talarico has a "real chance" of flipping the traditionally red state in this year's Senate race against Republican nominee Ken Paxton.

Speaking on Sean Hannity's radio show Wednesday while Governor Greg Abbott served as guest host earlier this week, Cruz, one of Texas' most prominent Republicans, said he expects the Senate race to be very close, potentially decided by just a few percentage points.

Recent polling echoes the race's competitiveness, with surveys showing both candidates holding narrow leads at different points in the campaign. The matchup comes after Paxton defeated longtime Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff in late May.

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Democrats have long sought to turn Texas blue, but the state has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988 and has backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1980. Democrats have made some races close, including the 2018 contest between Cruz and Beto O’Rourke, in which the Republican garnered 51 percent and O’Rourke 48 percent.

Talarico is seeking to end Democrats' losing streak in Texas.

His campaign comes as the party looks to regain control of the Senate, targeting competitive races in Alaska, Iowa and Maine, though that race is in flux after Democrat Graham Platner suspended his campaign on Wednesday amid sexual assault allegations. Republicans currently hold a majority in the Senate and House.

Newsweek has reached out to the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Talarico and Paxton for comment via email on Friday.

What Did Ted Cruz Say About Talarico?

"Unfortunately, I do think he has a real chance," Cruz said of Talarico. Speaking with Abbott, who is facing reelection this fall against Democrat Gina Hinojosa, Cruz said on Wednesday that he views the Senate contest as a "real race" and expects it to be extremely close.

“I think we're going to win, I think we're going to keep Texas red, but the polling right now shows this is a 1- or 2-point race,” he said.

He then went on to label the Democrat as “radical” and “extreme,” but then warned, “This guy is also charming.”

“He is affable, he sounds like a preacher, and I worry about the voters who may not be paying close attention to the issues, who just turn on the TV and say, ‘Oh, he seems like a nice young man,’” Cruz said.

Cruz, however, also highlighted Talarico's past comment describing God as nonbinary, one of several lines of attack Republicans have used to argue that the Democrat's views are out of step with many Texas voters. Democrats, meanwhile, contend that Talarico's emphasis on his Christian faith and religious background could help him appeal to independents and some moderate Republicans beyond the party's traditional base.

During a 2021 speech in the Texas legislature, Talarico said "God is nonbinary" to push back on transgender legislation backed by Republicans. When he announced his Senate campaign, the remark quickly resurfaced. For his part, Talarico acknowledged that the comment was "provocative," but said he was just citing what the Bible teaches.

"I don't think, theologically speaking, any of my fellow believers would disagree that God is beyond gender. I recognized how I phrased it, probably raised some eyebrows, but the idea that in Christ, in God, there is neither male nor female, that is not coming from me," he told Newsweek in 2025.

What the Latest Texas Senate Polls Show

Cruz’s remarks come as multiple recent surveys have indicated a highly competitive contest, with Talarico and Paxton neck-and-neck.

A recent New York Times/Siena poll shows the race in a deadlock, 47 percent for both Talarico and Paxton, and 6 percent of voters undecided. The poll of 656 likely voters found that a higher share of likely voters believe Paxton is "too extreme," 50 percent, compared to Talarico's 43 percent. The gap is larger when considering which candidate is believed to have "good character," with Talarico with 56 percent of the vote and Paxton 38 percent.

The poll was conducted between June 19 and 27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Another late-June survey by A2 Insights polled 618 likely voters between June 23-28 and found Talarico with a slight edge, 48 percent to Paxton's 46 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or mins 5.3 percentage points.

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project June poll found Paxton with a single-point lead, 43 percent compared to Talarico’s 42 percent. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 3 percent, while 3 percent said they would vote for someone else. Ten percent were still undecided about who they would vote for in November.

That marks an uptick in support for Paxton, whose polling stood at 34 percent to Talarico's 42 percent in an April survey by the pollster.

What (or Who) Is Driving Paxton's Push?

His surge appears to be driven by his own party. In April, ahead of a contentious runoff against Cornyn, 63 percent of Republicans said they would support Paxton in November. By June, that number had risen to 84 percent.

However, Talarico has much stronger backing from independents, 40 percent, compared to 12 percent for Paxton. Talarico also polls better among Black and Hispanic voters, 67 and 49 percent, respectively, compared to Paxton’s 13 and 35 percent. Paxton leads among white voters, 53 percent to Talarico’s 33 percent.

The poll was conducted from June 5-12 among 1,251 registered Texas voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

A SoCal Strategies poll also showed a tight race, with Paxton at 49 percent and Talarico at 47 percent. Four percent were still undecided. It surveyed 800 likely voters on June 21.

An earlier poll by Reconnaissance Market Research and the Siena Research Institute showed Talarico in the lead at 47 percent to Paxton’s 44 percent. It polled 807 likely voters June 1-4, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A Quantus Insights poll, which surveyed 800 likely voters June 3-4, showed Paxton up 2 points to 45 percent, compared with Talarico’s 43 percent. An earlier Texas Public Opinion Research Poll showed Talarico with 47 percent and Paxton with 44 percent. It had surveyed 1,670 likely voters May 27-28.

A poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Paxton and Talarico tied with 45 percent support. It surveyed 1,223 likely voters between April 22 and May 6.

Prediction markets, however, suggest Paxton remains the favorite. As of Friday afternoon, Kalshi gave Paxton a 57 percent chance of winning the Senate race, compared with 43 percent for Talarico. Polymarket similarly put Paxton at 57 percent and Talarico at 44 percent.

What's Next

The months ahead are expected to bring an influx of campaign spending and advertising as both parties seek to shape one of the nation's most closely watched Senate contests.