Thomas Massie

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., long a thorn in President Donald Trump's side, is trailing a Trump-backed challenger ahead of Kentucky's May 19 Republican primary, a Quantus Insights poll released Wednesday found.

Further bad news for Massie: Undecided voters are leaning toward his opponent, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, by more than a 2-to-1 margin. Massie has represented Kentucky's 4th Congressional District since 2012.

The poll of 909 likely Republican primary voters, conducted May 11-12, showed Gallrein with 48.3% support. Massie received 43.6%, while 7.6% were undecided.

Among the 69 respondents who said they were undecided, 52.4% said they were leaning toward Gallrein, 23.4% said they were leaning toward Massie, and 24.1% said they remained completely undecided.

"For an incumbent member of Congress, especially one with Massie's long-standing name identification and well-defined political brand, sitting at roughly 43% on the initial ballot is a warning sign," Quantus Insights said in a news release. "Massie retains a substantial base, but the topline suggests that a meaningful share of the Republican primary electorate is already prepared to move in another direction."

The poll also could underscore growing political danger for Massie after several Trump-backed challengers defeated incumbent Republican Indiana state senators who had opposed a Trump-backed congressional redistricting plan in the state's May 5 primary. The next day, Chris LaCivita, a senior Trump adviser who is running the pro-Gallrein MAGA KY PAC, wrote on X: "Hey @RepThomasMassie .... you are next."

Massie is among the few Republicans who have consistently opposed Trump-backed legislation and occasionally criticized Trump directly, often putting him at odds with the president and GOP leadership. Massie is a fiscal conservative and libertarian who often votes "no" on spending bills, debt increases, continuing resolutions and large federal packages regardless of which party supports them.

Trump first called for Massie to face a primary challenge after Massie voted against a continuing resolution in March 2025, though the measure narrowly passed the House. Massie also has voted against bills he believes are not aligned with conservative values.