Thomas Tiffany

Wisconsin Democrats are focused on flipping the state Legislature after more than 15 years of Republican control.

The outcome of the gubernatorial race is expected to significantly influence legislative election results.

Democrats could flip the Senate by gaining two seats and the Assembly by gaining five seats.

Republicans currently hold a significant fundraising advantage over Democrats in legislative campaign committees.

MADISON – While much attention has been given to a gubernatorial race that turned rapidly from sleepy to tumultuous in its final weeks, Democrats emerged from Tuesday's nailbiter primary election with a continued focus on flipping enough legislative seats to wield political power they've lacked for more than 15 years in Wisconsin.

While not entirely dependent on outcomes at the top of the ticket, political experts said the legislative races Democrats are targeting will be influenced by the race between Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany to head the executive branch.

"The Dems' shot at winning back the Legislature depends heavily on how the party performs in the governor's race," said University of Wisconsin political science professor Barry Burden.

"The 2026 environment is set up to give the party the best chance at taking full control of state government since the 2008 election, where Obama's prowess and more favorable legislative maps were so helpful," Burden said.

This will be the second set of legislative elections under new maps drawn by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and approved by Republicans who have held a tight grip on the legislative majority since 2011. For Senate candidates, it will be their first time running on these maps.

Democrats picked up 14 seats under the new maps in the 2024 election; their gain of four Senate seats broke a GOP supermajority. The party could flip the Senate this year by picking up two more seats, while Democrats would need to gain five seats to take control of the Assembly.

"Success at the top of the ticket will matter a lot, but it will not determine every legislative race," said University of Wisconsin-La Crosse political science professor Anthony Chergosky.

The state Senate could still flip to a Democratic majority even if the party's gubernatorial nominee loses narrowly, Chergosky said, while the Assembly is "a heavier lift for Democrats" and a flip would likely only be feasible in a "broadly favorable electoral environment."

"At the same time, candidate quality, incumbency, and local issues still create opportunities for legislative candidates to run ahead of the statewide ticket," Chergosky said.

Several veteran Republicans leave Legislature

Earlier this year, several key Republican lawmakers announced they would not seek reelection, leaving a leadership vacuum and key competitive seats without an incumbent candidate at a time when the leader of their party faces his lowest approval rating on record in Wisconsin.

But while Tiffany, a Republican congressman, faced no serious primary challenge, Democrats navigated a gubernatorial primary that turned divisive toward the end as the party teetered between democratic socialist Francesca Hong's insurgent campaign and Crowley's more moderate approach backed by Gov. Tony Evers.

Despite the twists, turns and intra-party squabbles of the governor's race, Democrats seeking to flip the state Senate in November said they feel as good now as they did a year ago when they launched their efforts.

"There's no question that the Wisconsin state Senate is the most flippable legislative chamber in the country this year," State Senate Democratic Committee spokesperson Will Karcz said. "We felt good … last summer, and we feel good about it today."

The fact that Hong's campaign was as successful as it was, Karcz said, "demonstrates a very tangible want and need for change in state government, and there has been nothing more consistent in the state government than Republican control of the Legislature."

GOP has lost incumbents but leads on cash

In addition to announcements by Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos in the spring that neither leader will return to the Legislature, Republican state senators in competitive districts – Van Wanggaard of Racine, Rob Hutton of Brookfield and Jesse James of Thorp – also announced their retirements this year.

Key GOP retirements in the Assembly included Reps. Jessie Rodriguez of Oak Creek and Dean Kaufert of Neenah – both leaving competitive seats without an incumbent to defend them.

Democrat Trevor Jung will face Republican Jim Croft to replace Wanggaard in the 21st Senate District, and Democratic Rep. Robyn Vining will face physical therapy business owner Mike Roberts to replace Hutton in the 5th.

Democrats will also target the 17th Senate District (held by Sen. Howard Marklein, R-Spring Green, a co-chair of the Legislature's powerful Joint Finance Committee) with Democratic state Rep. Jenna Jacobson, and are fighting to hold onto the 31st (Sen. Jeff Smith, D-Brunswick) against a challenge from Republican Michele Magadance Skinner.

In the Assembly, Democrats are seeking to defend a handful of close seats while targeting the districts vacated by Rodriguez and Kaufert, among others that have trended more Democratic in recent years. The national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is focusing on six pick-up seats in addition to defending four Democratic incumbents (Reps. Joe Sheehan, Ryan Spaude, Jodi Emerson and Steve Doyle).

Republicans currently enjoy a significant cash advantage over Democrats. The Republican Assembly Campaign Committee has brought in $10.6 million this year over the Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee's $3.4 million.

The Committee to Elect a Republican Senate has brought in $5.1 million to the State Senate Democratic Committee's $3.2 million.

About 86% of the money the Republican legislative committees have raised has come from billionaires Elizabeth Uihlein and Diane Hendricks.

"We are seeing that these November races are always tight, and obviously we're a swing state, and I think the donors are just energized," Republican Party of Wisconsin spokesperson Anika Rickard said. "We have a great slate of candidates running on the top of the ticket, and so donors know that we are in a good position to win in November."

Rickard said she has sensed dwindling confidence among Democrats in recent weeks.

Asked about the stakes for Republicans in November, Rickard said "we are hoping to get a trifecta."

"I know Democrats keep trying to push that, but more and more as we get into this cycle, it's appearing that they are not going to succeed at that. I've definitely seen a lot less messaging from their end on that front, so they seem to be a lot less confident going into this," Rickard said.

'Unhappy mood' of electorate may dominate

Democrats running down-ticket from Crowley may benefit from his strong relationship with Evers, who remains the most popular statewide politician in Wisconsin, Burden said.

Evers’ job approval has been above 50% in nearly every Marquette University Law School poll conducted during his time in office, most recently at 51% in the poll's most recent results last month.

At the same time, Republicans face a challenge with President Donald Trump's approval rating at a record low of 40% among Wisconsin voters.

That disadvantage remains a key aspect of the 2026 election, UW's Burden said.

"Evidence from prior midterm elections shows that opinions about the president do affect how people vote in state legislative elections," he said. "Republicans in Wisconsin have struggled in general elections when Trump is not on the ballot. His declining popularity only makes this more of a hurdle for GOP candidates."

Republican legislative candidates may seek to emphasize areas where they differ from the president, Chergosky said, but "Tiffany’s close identification with Trump makes that separation more difficult."

"The Trump, Tiffany, and MAGA brands could reinforce one another across the Republican ticket. If the political environment improves for Trump, that connection could benefit Republican candidates. But if the environment is strongly anti-Trump, the same connection could become a huge vulnerability for the party," he said.

Rickard countered that Democrats have their own popularity issues, along with financial woes at the national level within the Democratic National Committee.

"I don't think there's going to be a blue wave this November, and with Wisconsin as a swing state, we're looking forward to making sure that it stays Republican," she said.Republicans plan to tie Democrats to efforts to "continuously raise taxes and take more money out of everyone's pockets," Rickard said, while Karcz said Democrats "have been nonstop talking about the fact that we need to lower costs on our families" and will continue that message.

"The most important thread in these elections will be the unhappy mood of the electorate about inflation, property taxes, the labor market, and data centers. Candidates in both parties will be compelled to talk about these issues, but their proposed solutions will differ," Burden said.