Tom Cotton

NEW YORK (AP) — Republicans have spent an estimated $183 million on television ads focused on transgender-related attacks against Democrats in the final phase of this year’s midterm elections, betting that struggling GOP candidates can leverage the divisive cultural issue to overcome voters’ concerns about President Donald Trump’s leadership and the state of the economy. Arkansas Republicans have leaned hard into the anti-transgender messaging. Campaign ads attacking transgender rights have run in support of Gov. Sarah Sanders , Sen. Tom Cotton and U.S. Rep. French Hill this election cycle, despite Arkansas reporting zero incidents of transgender athletes unfairly dominating in youth girls’ sports, and gender-affirming medical care for transgender minors already being outlawed in the state. The massive investment through Oct. 25 in Arkansas and elsewhere produced about 217,000 TV spots nationwide and exceeds the amount Republicans spent on similar ads in 2024, a presidential election year, at the same point before Election Day, according to tallies provided to The Associated Press by data firm AdImpact. The spending campaign matched messaging from other Republicans on the campaign trail, led by Trump, who has played down surging gasoline prices and other rising costs, but highlighted what he described as an urgent threat to America’s children from Democratic policies. The Republican emphasis on transgender issues offers a consequential test of whether a theme that had worked in past elections — and especially in deep red states — can still be potent when voters consistently say high prices are their chief concern. Barely five minutes into his speech during Monday night’s rally in Corinth, Mississippi, Trump said that Democrats “promote the transgender mutilization of your children.” During his Sunday rally in Florida, Trump said “men in women’s sports” four times and gender “mutilization” — meaning mutilation — another four times. Having shifted away from abortion, few cultural issues reflect the Republican Party’s evolution on social issues in the age of Trump more than transgender rights. Though a tiny number of Americans are directly affected by legislation designed to protect transgender people from discrimination, Republicans have used the issue as a powerful emotional motivator, especially in Republican-leaning states where they need to win to maintain control of Congress. Texas’ high-stakes Senate contest alone has consumed the largest share of Republican-backed transgender-related spending, drawing an estimated $58 million for more than 50,000 airings, according to AdImpact. But the GOP is also investing heavily in related attacks against Democrats in Ohio, Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa and Mississippi, according to an AP analysis of the data. The Republican Party’s focus stands in stark contrast to what voters say they care most about this midterm season. “Republicans clearly believe these issues expose a cultural disconnect between Democ