Troy Carter

WASHINGTON — Baton Rouge’s Democratic Congressman, Cleo Fields, is somewhat sanguine entering the final furlongs of the November 3 congressional midterm races.

He knows he is at the center of a legal and political battle that could cause the sharpest decrease in Black representation on Capitol Hill in recent years. But he also hopes for an energization of the African-American community that could propel Democratic control of the House.

“We’re going to lose some members of Congress,” including himself, Fields said. “But I’m sure the Democrats will win a majority.”

About a third of the seats drawn to help elect 61 African Americans to Congress were redrawn because of the April 29 Louisiana v Callais decision in the U.S. Supreme Court. That ruling allowed Republican-led states to redraw districts that had favored Black candidates, most of whom are Democrats, into ones that are much more conservative and favor Republicans.

Fields’ district was at the core of that ruling. He was elected to the House in 2024, only to have a 6-3 Supreme Court find in Callais that his 6th Congressional District was unconstitutionally gerrymandered along racial lines.

Many Republicans cheered that decision.

“You cannot say that we’re all created equal and that states must treat everyone equal under the law then allow the law to sort people based upon race,” Gov. Jeff Landry told CBS shortly after the decision was rendered.

But others argued the ruling overturned decades of civil rights progress. They point out that Black residents compose roughly a third of the Louisiana’s population but, if the November election turns out as anticipated, only one of the state’s six U.S. Representatives will be Black.

Legislatures in states like Louisiana, Alabama and Tennessee – at the request of President Donald Trump – rushed to redraw election maps to more heavily favor the GOP. In Tennessee, for instance, lawmakers redrew the districts that represent Memphis, which is two-thirds Black, to remove the state’s single Democratic representative and spread the urban population among conservative rural voters.

Many Republicans, including the majority on the Supreme Court, have argued it is no longer necessary to draw majority-Black districts to protect the civil rights of Black voters. They argue it violates the Equal Protection Clause of the Constitution to specifically favor any race in drawing electoral maps.

Fields disagrees.

“You can’t expect a majority White legislature in a southern state to create lines without some federal legislation saying ‘be fair,'” Fields said. “I mean, it’s just unreasonable to expect them to do it because it’s just not going to happen.”

A high-stakes election

All 435 members of the U.S. House are on the ballot November 3. Early voting in Louisiana begins in five weeks, starting on October 20 and ending October 27.

Republicans hold a 218 to 214 majority in the House, with one independent and two vacancies – meaning that, depending on who shows up, Johnson can’t lose the support of more than two Republicans to pass legislation.

Most House incumbents will have an easy path to victory, but a handful of seats are in play and will decide if Republicans continue to hold the majority as they have since 2022.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Benton, has repeatedly predicted, as recently as Thursday night, that Republicans are going to easily maintain the majority after the votes are counted.

But Democrats say they are confident they can win a majority. And U.S. Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr., a New Orleans Democrat who is running to lead the influential Congressional Black Caucus, doesn’t concede the premise that Black representation in Congress will decline.

“While redistricting may cost Black representation in some districts, we have also seen African American candidates win open seats and build multiracial coalitions in districts once represented by White members,” Carter said. “Whatever the final number, let me be abundantly clear: the Congressional Black Caucus will remain strong, united, and relentless in fighting for policies that uplift our communities and protect every Americans’ voice to participate equitably in our democracy.”

Both Carter and Fields say they’re recommending voters base their decisions on party and candidate rather than race – even if it means fewer African-Americans in Congress.

The 119th Congress has 61 African-American House members, 57 of whom are Democrats, and six senators.

In 1965, after the Voting Rights Act was passed, the House had six Black members, none in the Senate. In the mid-1980s, 21 House members were Black – and there were still no African-Americans in the Senate.

Will turnout go up?

While the Callais decision may have changed the maps, it has also inspired turnout, some Democrats argue.

“Our African-American voters, without question, are clearly more motivated,” said Randal Gaines, a LaPlace attorney and chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party. “They see the decision in the Callais case as a direct, frontal attack on African-American voting rights – constitutionally protected rights for all citizens that were won with great suffering and sacrifices by many of ancestors and foreparents. They take it very seriously.”

Coming out of the Civil War, Whites in the South threw up legal hurdles, such as poll taxes and registration tests, to keep Black voters from participating in elections. For a century, until the Voting Rights Act was passed, African Americans were effectively disenfranchised, Gaines said.

“If you look at those conditions for Black Americans during that time, it's clearly the fact that, because of the pervasive discrimination they had in this country. You did not have White leaders representing the interests of Black Americans,” he said.

The Democratic Party is holding town halls and grassroots events educating voters on Callais and what it means. So is the Power Coalition, a progressive grassroots organization based in New Orleans.

“We’ve done 23 road shows,” said Ashley Shelton, who heads the Power Coalition. “We’re talking to folks about not only what happened in the Supreme Court, but also what happened in our Legislature.”

Voter apathy is high in Louisiana, particularly among African Americans, Shelton said. But she argues that’s because state legislators and leadership have spent decades minimizing Black political power.

“This is a large swath of our community that is losing its ability to effectively be able to elect candidates of choice,” Shelton said. “The only response to the gutting of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is for Black voters to show up and walk in their full agency and power as voters.”

Black voters in Louisiana have about half the numbers of White Republicans and tend show up at the polls less often, according to the statistics compiled by the Louisiana Secretary of State’s office.

For instance, in the June 27 runoff for the U.S. Senate race, only 14.5% of the state’s 926,806 Black voters participated, compared to 17.4% of the state’s 1.8 million qualified White voters.

So an increased showing of African-American voters likely will boost overall numbers, but it likely won’t be enough to change the outcomes in a state as red as Louisiana — regardless of how motivated Democrats are compared to Republicans, said Pearson Cross, director of the School of Behavioral and Social Sciences at the University of Louisiana at Monroe, where he teaches Louisiana and American politics.