Wesley Bell

Cori Bush, a former member of Congress who aligned with the progressive group known as the “Squad” during her tenure, is seeking a political comeback in Missouri against Representative Wesley Bell, who defeated her in a contentious primary in 2024.

Missouri voters will head to the polls on August 4 for the statewide primaries ahead of November's midterm elections, and St. Louis will present another test for the progressive movement after securing several victories in places like New York City, Philadelphia and Denver.

In Missouri’s 1st District, voters will decide on a rematch between Bell, a moderate, and Bush, who represented the district from 2021 to 2025 and established herself as a staunch progressive.

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Bell, a local prosecutor, unseated Bush two years ago. The race was defined by a wave of outside spending, including massive investment from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)’s United Democracy Project. Bell, however, focused his attacks on Bush’s vote against former President Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Progressives backing Bush are hoping the tide has shifted in their favor since 2024. The Democratic electorate has become increasingly frustrated with the party establishment’s approach to President Donald Trump, and voters have been more willing to select progressive firebrands over longtime, entrenched incumbents in recent primaries.

The primary will be the latest gauge of the Democratic electorate’s mood ahead of the midterms.

Newsweek reached out to the Bell and Bush campaigns for comment via email.

Cori Bush vs. Wesley Bell: What Polls, Prediction Markets Show

Polling on the district, which is based around St. Louis, is limited. Only one survey, a Bush internal, has been made public. The HIT Strategies poll gave Bell a slight advantage.

The incumbent’s support stood at 44 percent to 40 percent for Bush. Seventeen percent said they were undecided. The poll also found that voters view Bush slightly more favorably than Bell, with 52 percent saying they view Bush positively and 45 percent saying they view Bell favorably.

The poll was conducted among 401 likely Democratic primary voters February 19-23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.

Prediction markets are favoring Bell to win the primary. Kalshi gave him a 59 percent chance of winning, while Bush’s chances of winning stood at 40 percent. That marks a shift from one month ago, when Bush had a 53 percent chance to Bell’s 45.1.

On Polymarket, Bell had a 64 percent chance of winning the primary.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Whoever wins the primary will be heavily favored to win in November, as the district is among the most Democratic in the nation. Trump lost the district by nearly 58 points in 2024.

Progressives Rally Behind Cori Bush

Bush has received support from prominent progressive lawmakers and organizations for her comeback bid. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, and Michigan Representative Rashida Tlaib have backed her campaign. The organization Justice Democrats is also supporting her.

Bell, meanwhile, has received support from House leadership, including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York. AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) is also supporting Bell again, listing him as a “Pro-Israel Incumbent.”

Bell Defeated Bush in 2024—What Has Changed?

In 2024, Bell defeated Bush in what became one of the most expensive House primaries of all time.

AIPAC dropped more than $8 million to defeat Bush, a member of the progressive “squad” who opposed U.S. military aid to Israel after it launched an operation on Gaza following the October 7, 2023, attack by the Hamas militant group. She was one of two progressives, along with New York Representative Jamaal Bowman, who lost primaries that year.

Bush has criticized Bell for receiving support from AIPAC, as views of Israel have shifted. In 2024, 58 percent of Democrats said they viewed the Israeli people favorably; that is now 43 percent in the latest survey from Pew Research Center conducted May 4-17. Twenty-four percent of Democrats said they viewed the Israeli government favorably in 2024; that has dropped to 16 percent.

In a recent campaign ad, Bush said that she “delivered” in Congress, “bringing home record funding, keeping families in their homes, fighting to end the genocide in Gaza.”

“We’re in a fight for our lives, our rights and our democracy, and St. Louis lacks a fighter in Washington,” she said.

Bell, meanwhile, said that he believes Bush is “not a serious candidate.”

“In this election, the choices are clear," he said. "I wake up every day working for St. Louis, and the folks in St. Louis know that I’m going to wake up working for them. And then we’ve got an opponent, Cori, who wakes up thinking about Cori. And we’ve seen it over and over. And that’s why she was fired.”

Both candidates had experience in the Black Lives Matter movement—Bush as an activist and Bell as a prosecuting attorney for St. Louis County and as a member of the Ferguson City Council.

Progressives Score Major Primary Wins

Progressives have scored major victories in the midterm primaries.

In New York, Claire Valdez won an open seat held by Representative Nydia Velázquez, who has served in Congress since 1993 but did not seek reelection.

Two incumbents also fell to progressive challengers in New York. Former city Comptroller Brad Lander defeated Representative Dan Goldman, while progressive Darializa Avila Chevalier unseated Representative Adriano Espaillat.

In Colorado, Democratic socialist Melat Kiros defeated Representative Diana DeGette in a Denver-based district. Justice Democrat-backed Chris Rabb in Pennsylvania, Adam Hamawy in New Jersey and Frederick Haynes III in Texas also won their primaries.

All are viewed as favorites to win in November, as they are running in some of the most Democratic districts in the country.