What are experts predicting for this close-watched Alabama congressional election?
The Cook Political Report projected this week that Democrats will win control of the House in November after 15 races shifted in their favor, potentially ending Republican control of the chamber.
Democrats are now favored in 208 House races rated Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic, compared with 205 races favored for Republicans, according to Cook analyst Erin Covey.
Among the races that have recently shown movement is Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, which shifted from “solid” Republican to “likely” Republican in late June and remained in that category in the latest polls.
U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Mobile, who currently holds the seat, will face off against State Rep. Rhett Marques, R-Enterprise, in November.
An internal poll conducted by a national Democratic organization this summer showed Marques and Figures tied at 46% for the U.S. House seat, with 8% of voters undecided.
The survey of 421 likely voters in the district was conducted July 29-30 and has a margin of error of 4.8%.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate in 2026, requiring the party to defend every seat it currently holds and flip four additional seats.
The estimates suggest Democrats could ultimately gain between five and 15 seats, giving the party between 220 and 230 seats.
“Despite a push for mid-decade redistricting, a massive reserve of cash, and an unpopular opposition party, Republicans are on track to lose their House majority this November,” Covey wrote.