Top-Two California Primary Points to Trouble for Valadao as Democrats Seek to Max Out Gerrymander
— Although nearly all the results were tabulated weeks ago, California finally certified its top-two primary results last week.
— Democrats won the two-party vote in all five districts they targeted in a voter-approved gerrymander, in addition to winning it in all of the districts they currently hold.
— Since the advent of California’s current top-two primary system back in 2012, Republicans have never come back to win a U.S. House race when their share of the two-party primary vote was below 50%.
— Rep. David Valadao (R, CA-22), historically an impressive electoral performer, finished on the wrong end of a lopsided 59%-41% Democratic edge in his district, a large enough deficit that he is now an underdog in our ratings.
— However, there are confounding factors, including the potential weakness of Democratic nominee Randy Villegas, that suggest a path for Valadao.
At long last, California has finalized and certified its primary results. Historically, the top two format—in which all can…