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Image for New poll reveals neck-and-neck race for California's 48th Congressional seat

New poll reveals neck-and-neck race for California's 48th Congressional seat

KPBS Public Media · July 29, 2026

The first poll in the general election race for California’s 48th Congressional District shows Democrat San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert in a statistical tie with Republican County Supervisor Jim Desmond.

Von Wilpert came in second to Desmond in the June top-two primary among a crowded field of Democrats to advance to the general election.

The poll was conducted by Lake Research Partners, a Democratic polling and research firm, and shared by the von Wilpert campaign on Monday. It has von Wilpert leading by two percentage points over Desmond, but within the margin of error.

Among 500 likely voters, 48% chose von Wilpert, 46% chose Desmond, and 6% remain undecided. But 38% said they “strongly support” Desmond, while 36% said the same of von Wilpert.

The margin of error for the poll was 4.4%, meaning the race is essentially tied at the outset of the general election campaign, according to UCSD political science professor Thad Kousser.

“So that means that their best guess is …