Kentucky — 4th District

Representative Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican who has repeatedly broken with President Donald Trump and his party, is trailing Trump-backed Ed Gallrein in the primary for the state’s 4th Congressional District, according to a new Quantus Insights poll.

The May 19 primary will determine who advances to the November general election and test the strength of Trump’s influence in the GOP, particularly against Republicans who have openly broken with him.

Newsweek has reached out to both campaigns for comment via email on Wednesday.

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What To Know

Massie is seeking an eighth term in the House and is running against Gallrein in the primary. The race has become one of the most expensive House primaries, with Axios reporting more than $25 million in ad spending. As of April 29, Massie had $608,244 cash on hand and Gallrein $543,653, per Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings.

The tight race comes two years after Massie won his primary with more than 75 percent of the vote. Trump endorsed Gallrein in this year's race and brought him on stage during a rally in March, visibly throwing his support behind the challenger as Massie continues to clash with the president and GOP leadership on several issues, including the Epstein files and the Iran war.

Trump’s endorsements have historically carried significant influence in Republican primaries, particularly among the party’s conservative base.

A Quantus Insights poll published on Wednesday found that Massie is trailing Gallrein, 48.3 percent to 43.1 percent. About 7.6 percent of voters are undecided or unsure of who they may vote for. According to the poll’s crosstabs, Gallrein has most support from women with 52.3 percent, while Massie leads among male voters with 47.8 percent.

When participants were asked which candidate they are leaning toward, even if not sure who to support, a majority said Gallrein, 52.4 percent, while 23.5 percent said Massie and 24 percent were undecided.

The survey of 903 likely Republican primary voters was conducted between May 11-12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Several Republicans and political analysts have warned that with Massie’s lead slipping, he may be in danger of losing his seat. Former Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita said in a May 6 post on X: “Hey @RepThomasMassie ….you are next,” following primary vote tabulations in Indiana, where Trump-endorsed candidates performed well.

What Other Polls and Prediction Markets Say

The new poll's results show a shift in voter sentiment. A Quantus poll conducted between April 6-7 of 438 lively voters showed Massie up 46.8 percent to Gallrein’s 37.7 percent, with 14 percent undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The poll found that 51.4 percent of respondents viewed Massie favorably, compared with 39.8 percent who said the same of Gallrein. Meanwhile, 46.4 percent expressed an unfavorable opinion of Massie and 38.3 percent for Gallrein.

Another April poll of 433 registered Republicans conducted by Big Data Poll, found Massie ahead 53.4 percent to 47.6 percent. Massie had significant support from voters under 30 at 78.5 percent. The poll was conducted between April 3-7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Prediction markets show a much closer race than the recent poll, with Kalshi finding the duo in a neck-and-neck race, with Massie just barely inching ahead at 51 percent to Gallrein's 49 percent as of Wednesday afternoon. Polymarket paints a similar picture, but with Gallrein peeling ahead at 50 percent and Massie at 49 percent.

How Thomas Massie and Donald Trump’s Relationship Frayed

Massie and Trump clashed in March 2020 after the Kentucky Republican voted against the Save Our Workers Bill, a $2 trillion COVID-19 relief package. Trump called him a “third rate Grandstander,” urging the GOP to “throw Massie out” of their party in a post to X, then known as Twitter.

Four years later, in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, Massie endorsed Trump’s campaign. He said Trump would “put Americans first by securing our liberties at home and preventing needless wars abroad” and “make America Healthy Again by empowering small farmers and taking on special interests that have corrupted our healthcare system” in a statement widely reported in October 2024.

Since then, their relationship has frayed significantly. Massie has voted against parts of Trump’s agenda, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which passed Congress last year. Known for a more libertarian approach to global affairs, Massie has also opposed Trump’s foreign policy actions, including military strikes on Iran. He supported a War Powers Resolution aimed to curb Trump's ability to declare war with Iran.

The Epstein files have also become a sticking point in their relationship. Massie led an effort alongside Democratic Representative Ro Khanna of California to force the Justice Department to release the files related to Epstein, a sex offender and disgraced financier who died by suicide in a New York City federal jail in 2019 while awaiting trial on charges of sex trafficking.

Trump has repeatedly attacked Massie on social media.

“I predict that ‘Representative’ Thomas Massie will go down as the WORST Republican Congressman in the long and fabled history of the United States Congress, even worse than Crazy Liz Chaney [sic], Cryin’ Adam Kinzinger, and Marjorie “Traitor” Brown (Remember, Green turns to Brown under stress!). They are all misfits and losers, but Massie, who is running against a great American Patriot in the Kentucky Primary, will hopefully lose BIG,” Trump wrote on March 11.

What Happens Next

Kentucky voters can cast ballots during three days of early, in-person voting beginning Thursday and continuing through Friday and Saturday ahead of the May 19 primary election. Whoever wins the primary will be significantly favored against a Democrat in the general election. The district is solidly Republican, backing Trump by more than 35 points in the 2024 presidential race.