Maine — 2nd District

Vice President JD Vance touted President Donald Trump’s economic agenda in Brewer, Maine, on Monday, appearing with former Republican Governor Paul LePage, who is seeking a political comeback in the midterm elections.

LePage is running in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District against Democrat Matthew Dunlap. Democratic Representative Jared Golden, a moderate, currently holds the seat and decided to retire at the end of his term rather than seek a fifth term in Congress. The district generally favors Republicans but has backed some Democrats, including Golden, as Maine has a notable independent streak.

Republicans believe LePage has a strong chance of flipping the seat without Golden on the ballot because of its conservative lean—it backed Trump by 9 points in the 2024 election. But Democrats do view the race as competitive, as Golden has been able to win the district, and analysts expect the national environment to favor Democrats amid Trump’s declining national approval rating.

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Vance spoke in support of LePage during the event at a defense manufacturing facility in Brewer, a suburb of Bangor, on Monday.

“A guy like Paul LePage. He is not a go-along-to-get-along politician. He is an independent-minded guy, but he is independent for you. There is one thing I know, that Paul cares about and that’s fighting hard for his people every single day. We’ve got to send Paul LePage to Congress,” Vance said.

The race is expected to be among the most competitive of the midterms. LePage brings high name recognition from his tenure as governor from 2011 to 2019, while Dunlap currently serves as state auditor and previously served as secretary of state.

Dunlap campaign manager Harry Burke told Newsweek on Monday that Maine voters “understand the disaster Paul LePage would be in Congress.”

“LePage supported Medicaid cuts that are shutting down clinics, tariffs that are jacking up prices, and an unnecessary foreign war that’s made winter heating oil less affordable,” he said. “The DC establishment is so worried about LePage's failing campaign that they sent Speaker Johnson and Vice President Vance to bail him out. It won't work because Mainers want a fighter like Matt Dunlap who will lower costs and protect Social Security and Medicaid."

Newsweek also reached out to the LePage campaign for comment via email.

Paul LePage vs. Matthew Dunlap: What Polls Show

Recent independent polling on the race is slim, but internal polling has been done over the last few months.

The latest independent polling of the race was released in February, when the University of New Hampshire released a survey showing LePage up one point, 47 percent to 46 percent. The survey was conducted from February 12 to 16, 2026, and included 522 likely voters in the second district, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

A Tulchin Research poll, a Dunlap internal, showed him up a single point over LePage (49 percent to 48 percent). It surveyed 600 likely voters from July 11 to 16, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99 percentage points. It was first reported by CNN.

However, a co/efficient poll, sponsored by the NRCC, showed LePage up 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent. It surveyed 918 likely voters from April 26 to 28, 2026, according to The New York Times.

Prediction Markets Favor LePage

LePage is favored by prediction markets as of Monday. He had a 61 percent chance of flipping the seat on Kalshi and a 56 percent chance on Polymarket.

Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.

ME-02 Shifts Rightward

Maine’s Second District has shifted rightward over the past few decades. It backed former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then voted for Trump in each of his three presidential runs.

It comprises the vast, rural, northern parts of Maine, but also includes cities like Augusta, Bangor and Lewiston. Those cities, along with the more liberal coastal areas, have kept Republican margins narrow and have been key to boosting Golden, even as Trump has made inroads with the district’s rural, working-class populations.

Statewide, Maine has remained Democratic-leaning. Trump never won Maine and lost it by 7 points in 2024 while carrying the national popular vote. However, Republican Senator Susan Collins has won recent elections because of her personal popularity and bipartisan credentials.

She is up for reelection this year, and Democrats hope it will be her toughest race yet as Trump remains deeply unpopular in the Pine Tree State. She is running against Democrat Troy Jackson, the former Maine Senate president.

GOP Sees 2026 Pickup Opportunity

If LePage flips the seat, it could be one of the few seats Republicans flip this November outside of those redrawn in mid-decade redistricting. At Trump +9, it is currently one of the most Republican seats held by a Democrat. Golden’s decision to retire has given Republicans more hope of flipping a seat in a year analysts expect will favor Democrats.

Still, Democrats are investing in the seat.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) announced support for Dunlap last week. It previously backed state legislator Joe Baldacci, viewed as more centrist, in the Democratic primary. Dunlap is more of a progressive, with the endorsement of California Representative Ro Khanna.

What Happens Next

Dunlap and LePage will continue to make their cases to Maine voters over the coming months. Forecasters currently give LePage an advantage. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Likely Republican.