'Crystal Ball' moves 2 NC congressional races to toss-up
Two North Carolina congressional races are now among the nation’s most closely watched, after Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved both the 1st and 11th Congressional Districts into the “Toss-up” category in its latest analysis of the 2026 fight for control of the US House of Representatives.
The University of Virginia Center for Politics announced Thursday that it shifted North Carolina’s 1st and 11th Congressional Districts from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up” as part of a broader update expanding the number of competitive House races nationwide from 15 to 20.
The changes reflect analysts’ assessment of the current political environment, candidate fundraising, district demographics, and other factors. They are not predictions of election outcomes.
Crystal Ball analyst Kyle Kondik said that the revised ratings better align with the publication’s overall expectation that Democrats currently have a slight advantage in the race for the House majority.
“We’re revamping our House ratings this week,…